| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 1 | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars 1 | 6–4 |
| 4 | |
College of Charleston | Cougars 2 | 4–6 |
| 5 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 2 | 3–7 |
| 6 | |
Tulane University | Angry Wave | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,436 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 22 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.506 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 7.76 | 8.40 | 4–6 | 3.0 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2 | Tulane University Green Wave | 9.43 | 9.68 | 5–3 | 4.6 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 10.65 | 10.89 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 5 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 7.98 | 8.09 | 2–6 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 3 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 9.68 | 8.95 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 6 | Tulane University Angry Wave | 7.09 | 4.09 | 0–2 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | Tulane University | 2.92 | 3.18 | 5–3 | 4.6 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Jc Hermus | U. S. Naval Academy | 3.65 | 3.89 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Trenton Shaw | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.25 | 2.03 | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Jack Brown | College of Charleston | 3.52 | 2.79 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Paris Henken | College of Charleston | 3.17 | 2.44 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Wave | 1 | 2 | 2 | Wave | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 6–4 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 5–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | L | ✕ |
| College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 4–6 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 4–6 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 6–4 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Angry Wave | 5–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Wave | 1 | 2 | 2 | Wave | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 6–4 | ✕ | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–7 | L | ✕ | L | L | L | ✕ |
| College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 6–4 | W | W | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 6–4 | W | W | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 6–4 | ✕ | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Tulane University Angry Wave | 3–7 | L | ✕ | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Angry Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Angry Wave | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 1 | Connor Bayless '21 Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 |
Fiona Lobon '22 Madeline Pruzan '21 Sean Linden '21 Kimmie Leonard '22 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Cameron Giblin '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Marcus Huttunen '24 |
Lydia Brown '23 Kit Stoll '23 Grace Siwicki '22 Gillian Perrell '24 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars 1 | Hunter Skinner '20 Jack Brown '21 Paris Henken '22 |
Hannah Kinder '21 Noelle Owen '23 Anna Sherry '23 Lucy Klempen '24 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars 2 | Jack Howard '23 Max Anker '24 Pierce Ornstein '22 Taylor Hasson '23 |
Chloe Hudgins '24 Peter Barron '21 Roxanne Snyder '23 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 2 | Caden Scheiblauer '23 Gavin Mcjones '23 Olivia De Olazarra '22 Trenton Shaw '24 |
Madeline Smith '24 Carlyn Blauvelt '23 Jonah Hatt '23 Colin Macgillivray '23 |
|
Tulane University | Angry Wave | Caelan Watts '21 Mia Hanes '24 William Keenan '23 |
Katherine Cartiglia '21 Alanna Austin '21 Abigail Borggaard '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
