U. S. Naval Academy '21
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.39 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 192 | Spring 2021 |
| Keelboat | 1.93 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 6 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.40 (fleet 4.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 122–38 (76%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 3 | 20–1 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 3 | 42–8 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 6 | 60–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (160 matches) the record is 122–38 against 118.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-24 | MAISA South Team Race Championships | skipper | 3.63 | 6.63 | 8–0 | 6.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 22% |
| 2021-04-11 | Navy Quad Team Race | skipper | 3.60 | 6.60 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| 2021-03-27 | Navy Spring Team Race | skipper | 3.61 | 3.85 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 3.73 | 4.26 | 14–3 | 12.8 | +0.53 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2020-02-29 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.74 | 2.74 | 12–3 | 13.6 | −0.99 | 1.2 | 96% |
| 2020-02-15 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 3.75 | 3.89 | 16–2 | 15.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.78 | 3.11 | 11–10 | 13.7 | −0.67 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2019-04-06 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.63 | 4.51 | 11–3 | 8.8 | +0.88 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.52 | 4.08 | 16–5 | 13.9 | +0.56 | 0.8 | 22% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.53 | 4.19 | 11–3 | 9.7 | +0.66 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 3.50 | 4–3 | 4.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2019-03-02 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.51 | 2.98 | 7–5 | 8.0 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Hinman Trophy (U.S. Team Racing Championship) | Selected | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Navy Spring Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 1.98 |
| Navy Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Navy Quad Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 4.43 |
| Men's Open Singlehanded National Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 16.2 | 3.55 |
| MAISA South Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| MAISA South Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 3.60 |
| 2021 Gill College Sailing Coed Nationals | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 4.33 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 90% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | B | 5 | 2.4 | — |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.1 | 5.40 |
| MAISA Laser Elimination Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.8 | 3.37 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.0 | 3.14 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.8 | 4.15 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.9 | 3.01 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 14 | 2.9 | 5.13 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 4.04 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 4.3 | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 4.29 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 2.81 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 3.75 |
| Harvard Coed Showcase 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.7 | 3.60 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sunday) | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.5 | 4.22 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sat) | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.7 | 3.88 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.9 | 2.72 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.5 | 3.38 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 3.52 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.1 | 3.46 |
| MAISA Laser Elimination Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.7 | 4.64 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.6 | 2.87 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 11.3 | 2.87 |
| Carl Van Duyne - MAISA Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.9 | 2.95 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Connor Bayless |  Severn School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
