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Navy Quad Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 15
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 55
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 72
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 74
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 81
6 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 87
7 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 100
8 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 100
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 A 1 3 1 1 6 Jc Hermus '22
Kimmie Leonard '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 B 4 1 2 2 9 Connor Bayless '21
Fiona Lobon '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 A 3 8 3 5 19 Gray Benson '22
Madeline Pruzan '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 2 6 4 11 23 Lewis Cooper '21
Sophia Taczak '21
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 A 7 2 11 3 23 Olivia De Olazarra '22
Sally Johnson '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 A 9 5 6 6 26 Soenke Jordan '21
Ruby Gordon '23
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 5 11 7 7 30 Bridget Groble '22
Abigail Tutt '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 A 6 13 8 9 36 Chiara Perotti Correa '22
Allison Forsyth '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 B 8 4 5 DSQ 36 Gavin Mcjones '23 [1-2]
Trenton Shaw '24 [3-4]
Sean Linden '21 [1-2]
Colin Macgillivray '23 [3-4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 A 13 10 9 13 45 Keiran James Golden '24
Ellie Sekowski '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 12 9 16 10 47 Katherine Bennett '22
Sam Muir '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 B 18 12 14 4 48 Michael Ehnot '22
Sydney Register '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 B 15 7 10 17 49 Carlyn Blauvelt '23
Elizabeth Linsdell '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 11 14 17 12 54 Madison Bashaw '24
Laura Dennison '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 B 10 18 13 14 55 Lucas Masiello '23
Allison Gingerich '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 14 17 18 8 57 Hannah Pokorny '21 [1-4]
Katherine Barton '23 [1-2]
Makalynne Dyer '22 [3-4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 16 15 12 15 58 Gloria Kevliciute '21 [1-4]
Rachel O'Neill '24 [1-3]
Emma Gronda '22 [4]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 B 17 16 15 16 64 Sarah Hardee '22
Taylor Milefchik '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 19999
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 210101010
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 113131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 315151515
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs7777
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 22222
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 33333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 212121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 116161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 217171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 318181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs8888
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 14444
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 25555
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 36666

Conditions — 04/10/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From ESE (115°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1014.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Navy: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →