Old Dominion University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–43 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 4 | 11–25 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 13–43 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-11 | Navy Quad Team Race | skipper | 2.17 | -0.83 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| 2021-03-28 | ODU vs Jacksonville Team Race | skipper | 2.26 | 0.95 | 1–5 | 2.3 | −1.30 | 1.2 | 96% |
| 2021-03-20 | Charleston Spring Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 2.86 | 8–7 | 5.6 | +0.74 | 1.3 | 14% |
| 2021-03-14 | SMC Spring Fling Team Race | skipper | 1.96 | 2.33 | 2–8 | 1.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.42 | 1.16 | 2–18 | 2.5 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 74% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SMC Spring Fling Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| SMC Spring Fling | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | 0.92 |
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.6 | 2.43 |
| ODU vs Jacksonville Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 17% | — |
| ODU vs Jacksonville Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | 2.77 |
| Navy Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Navy Quad Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.2 | -0.74 |
| Charleston Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corkran King Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.0 | 1.75 |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 1.83 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.0 | 2.60 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 1.58 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.9 | 2.20 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.7 | 2.03 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | -1.87 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 2.72 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat 420's | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.7 | 2.54 |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 15.2 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.0 | 2.68 |
| Phebe Corkran King Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 1.92 |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.5 | 2.47 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.0 | 1.36 |
| GW Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.5 | 1.92 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | 2.40 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.5 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 1.65 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sunday) | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.8 | 1.82 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.3 | 2.64 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | 0.20 |
| SMC Quad Fleet Race II Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 0.87 |
| SMC Quad Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 1.08 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 15.0 | 1.61 |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 10% | — |
| GW Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.5 | 1.94 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.5 | 2.29 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 16.3 | 1.37 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.8 | 1.59 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | 0.51 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
