Navy Women's

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/07/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatZ420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	103
2	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	164
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	171
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	177
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	191
6	George Washington University	Colonials	214
7	Christopher Newport University	Captains	286
8	University of Maryland	Terps	344
9	University of Virginia	Wahoos	414

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen B	4	1	7	1	5	2	7	2	5	3	4	3	44	Brittney Slook '20 Fiona Lobon '22
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers A	2	5	6	3	1	1	1	7	7	9	7	1	50	Lenox Butcher '20 Meghan Perez '22
Old Dominion University	Monarchs A	1	6	5	4	2	7	10	5	4	2	5	5	56	Bridget Groble '22 Abigail Tutt '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen A	6	7	8	11	3	3	6	3	1	1	8	2	59	Jessica Mcjones '20 Kelly Milliken '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks A	13	8	2	6	7	13	2	9	2	4	9	7	82	Jessica Bennett '20 Allison Gingerich '21
George Washington University	Colonials A	3	9	3	2	9	6	14	6	3	10	15	4	84	Aitana Mendiguren '20 Sarah Noyes '20
Georgetown University	Hoyas A	9	11	4	9	8	5	8	4	6	8	10	6	88	Gwynie Dunlevy '20 Celine Bennett '20
Georgetown University	Hoyas B	5	12	1	5	10	4	4	13	9	5	12	9	89	Riley Kloc '23 Juliana Rustum '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks B	8	4	12	8	4	10	3	1	11	13	1	14	89	Gloria Kevliciute '21 Sophia Taczak '21
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers B	10	3	15	13	15	8	9	12	10	6	3	10	114	Julia Johansson '23 Kelly Hanlon '21
Christopher Newport University	Captains A	15	2	16	7	6	12	5	14	13	11	6	11	118	Anna Patterson '20 [1-12] Julia Burns '22 [1-2, 6] Alesha Darling '20 [3-5, 7-12]
George Washington University	Colonials B	11	10	11	12	11	11	12	8	8	12	11	13	130	Julia Laforgia '23 [1-5] Islay Van Dusen '23 [6-12] Kaleigh Morgan '24 [1-5, 11-12] Chiara Perotti Correa '22 [6-10]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs B	7	13	10	10	13	9	16	11	14	7	13	12	135	Hannah Pokorny '21 Julia Williams-Portland '21
Christopher Newport University	Captains B	14	16	17	14	12	14	11	17	16	15	14	8	168	Emily Key '22 [1-12] Alexandria Brooks '22 [1-2, 6] Maiya Foleck '01 [3-5, 7-12]
University of Maryland	Terps B	16	17	9	18	17	16	13	15	15	16	2	15	169	Madeline Mulligan '20 [1-12] Katherine Crawford '22 [1-6, 8-12] Julie Coffman '22 [7]
University of Maryland	Terps A	17	15	13	16	16	15	15	10	12	14	16	16	175	Natalie Jones '20 Elizabeth Keller '22
University of Virginia	Wahoos A	12	14	18	15	14	18	17	16	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	200	Elizabeth Harrington '22 Claire Miller '22
University of Virginia	Wahoos B	18	18	14	17	18	17	18	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	214	Hannah Lothrop '21 [1-5] Marion Hopkinson '20 [6-12] Marion Hopkinson '20 [1-5] Hannah Lothrop '21 [6-12]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
George Washington University Colonials	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
University of Maryland Terps	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
University of Virginia Wahoos	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Christopher Newport University Captains	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
George Washington University Colonials	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Georgetown University Hoyas	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
University of Maryland Terps	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Old Dominion University Monarchs	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
University of Virginia Wahoos	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Anna Patterson '20 [1-12]	Julia Burns '22 [1-2, 6] Alesha Darling '20 [3-5, 7-12]
Captains	Emily Key '22 [1-12]	Alexandria Brooks '22 [1-2, 6] Maiya Foleck '01 [3-5, 7-12]
George Washington University	Aitana Mendiguren '20	Sarah Noyes '20
Colonials	Julia Laforgia '23 [1-5] Islay Van Dusen '23 [6-12]	Kaleigh Morgan '24 [1-5, 11-12] Chiara Perotti Correa '22 [6-10]
Georgetown University	Gwynie Dunlevy '20	Celine Bennett '20
Hoyas	Riley Kloc '23	Juliana Rustum '20
Old Dominion University	Bridget Groble '22	Abigail Tutt '21
Monarchs	Hannah Pokorny '21	Julia Williams-Portland '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jessica Bennett '20	Allison Gingerich '21
Seahawks	Gloria Kevliciute '21	Sophia Taczak '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	Kelly Milliken '21
Midshipmen	Brittney Slook '20	Fiona Lobon '22
University of Maryland	Natalie Jones '20	Elizabeth Keller '22
Terps	Madeline Mulligan '20 [1-12]	Katherine Crawford '22 [1-6, 8-12] Julie Coffman '22 [7]
University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	Meghan Perez '22
Quakers	Julia Johansson '23	Kelly Hanlon '21
University of Virginia	Elizabeth Harrington '22	Claire Miller '22
Wahoos	Hannah Lothrop '21 [1-5] Marion Hopkinson '20 [6-12]	Marion Hopkinson '20 [1-5] Hannah Lothrop '21 [6-12]

Conditions — 09/07/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.8 kn

avg · max 4.6 kn

Gusts to 11.9 kn

From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1011.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn* · N 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Navy: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu