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Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 270
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 332
3 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 340
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 417
5 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 459
6 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 562
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 4 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 10 1 2 1 3 2 33 Jack Reiter '22
Annabelle Ayer '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 1 BKD 3 2 3 6 8 10 4 2 6 9 2 1 61 Gray Benson '22
Madeline Pruzan '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 5 4 10 8 11 8 3 2 1 11 1 3 5 3 75 Soenke Jordan '21
Zachary Lehan '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks C 2 3 2 5 2 3 2 3 3 14 16 18 6 15 94 Leo Boucher '22 [1-8]
Hunter Cutting '21 [9-14]
Ashley Wagner '20 [1-8]
Sam Muir '22 [9-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 6 15 12 7 8 2 4 6 12 6 3 2 10 9 102 Carly Broussard '21
Victoria Boatwright '22
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 11 2 11 16 7 5 6 5 7 7 4 11 15 4 111 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22
Grace Bloomfield '19
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials C 9 13 5 4 10 16 5 14 8 16 9 4 1 7 121 Ryan Janov '22
Blair Lalor '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen C 15 10 9 9 16 4 9 13 2 3 8 14 8 6 126 Sean Linden '21
Bartholomew Winn '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas C 12 5 16 3 6 13 12 4 15 8 13 7 13 8 135 Noah Kelleher '19 [1-14]
Lucy Beimfohr '21 [1-8]
Isabelle Trimble '19 [9-14]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 8 7 4 14 5 9 16 11 5 5 7 17 18 18 144 Matthew Priebe '22
Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 3 8 17 17 1 14 13 7 9 13 12 8 11 12 145 Bridget Groble '22
Makalynne Dyer '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 13 11 14 13 9 10 10 8 18 4 5 13 12 5 145 Tyler Fleig '19
Holly Koerwer '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 14 9 8 6 14 7 14 17 6 9 10 10 9 14 147 Joshua Paper '20 [1-14]
Allison Gingerich '21 [1-8]
Ashley Wagner '20 [9-14]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 10 6 7 15 15 11 7 9 14 12 17 6 17 11 157 James Mcavoy '20
Kate Lenhard '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 17 14 13 12 12 15 11 12 16 10 15 12 4 13 176 Ellie Ungar '19 [1-14]
Dyson Lord '19 [1-8]
Jessica Bennett '20 [9-14]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 7 17 6 10 13 17 15 18 11 15 11 16 16 17 189 Hannah Pokorny '21
Breanna Schultz '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave C 18 12 15 11 18 12 17 15 13 18 14 5 7 16 191 Harris Cram '19
Bamboo Trinh '22
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs C 16 16 18 18 17 18 18 16 17 17 18 15 14 10 228 John Glenn '22 [1-4, 7-14]
Myles Murphy '22 [5-6]
Abigail Tutt '21 [1-4, 7-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials11111111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas22222222222222
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen66666666666666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs33333333333333
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks44444444444444
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave55555555555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials77777777777777
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas88888888888888
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1212121212121212121212121212
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs99999999999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1010101010101010101010101010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave1111111111111111111111111111

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C13C14C
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials1313131313131313131313131313
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas1414141414141414141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1818181818181818181818181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1515151515151515151515151515
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1616161616161616161616161616
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave1717171717171717171717171717

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From S (179°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.9 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1021.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn* · S 6 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.39 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →