Tulane University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.71 (fleet 2.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–9 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 10–9 against 9.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-08 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.89 | 2.36 | 5–5 | 4.6 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2017-04-08 | 2017 SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.56 | 1.76 | 5–4 | 4.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.2 | — |
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.6 | 3.31 |
| All-State Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.3 | -1.64 |
| Troy Swetman Regatta | Crew | A | 9 | 3.8 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| SEISA Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 3.20 |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.2 | 4.59 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 6 | 16.0 | 1.46 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.9 | 1.28 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owlapalooza 2017 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 1.88 |
| Back to the Bayou | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.5 | 4.01 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Coed Champs | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.0 | 2.50 |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.0 | 1.68 |
| Garner Tullis | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.0 | 0.83 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 0.43 |
| 2017 SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Owlapalooza | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.9 | 3.01 |
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 1.52 |
| Back to the Bayou | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 3.27 |
| Aggie Fall | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.9 | 2.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
