Baldwin Wood

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 7 21 28
2 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 18 12 30
3 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 21 15 36
4 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 27 21 48
5 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 29 45 74
6 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 40 36 76
7 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 3 32 46 78
8 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 45 37 82
9 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 51 37 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 Bradley Shaw '16
Sevanna Stewart '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 3 4 2 2 4 3 18 Thomas Braly '19
Savannah Mapes '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 4 3 5 5 2 2 21 Malcolm Kriegel '18 [1-2]
Nick Watts '18 [3-4]
Harris Cram '19 [5-6]
Rocio Madruga '18 [1-2]
Sophia Clark '18 [3-4]
Allison Woolverton '19 [5-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 2 6 4 6 3 6 27 Carson Pepper '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Morgan Frakes '17 [3-4]
Abigail Gregory '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Kirchner '17 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 5 1 6 4 6 7 29 Catie Cullen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Mary Berg '20 [3-4]
Stephen Hahn '20 [1-2]
Addison Adams '17 [3-4]
Sophia Ricker '19 [5-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 3 6 5 3 9 5 4 32 Catherine Bristow '17 [1-6]
Shelby Click '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Meghan O'Halloran '20 [3-4]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 9 7 7 3 9 5 40 Bryndin Hartman '18
Mariana Perrigo '18
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 7 8 8 7 7 8 45 Aaron Comen '18 [1-6]
Jordin Perry '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Carlos Zamora '19 [3-4]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 8 9 9 8 8 9 51 Anish Zute '18 [1-6]
Eugene Harrison '20 [1-2]
Shawn Xu '20 [3-4]
Alejandro Paez Touche '18 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 2 1 1 1 3 4 12 Andrew Essenburgh '19
Aspen Spiker '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 1 2 3 3 4 2 15 James Mcavoy '20 [1-2, 5-6]
David Graf '19 [3-4]
Alex Burgers '20 [1-2]
Grace Bloomfield '19 [3-4]
Alexandra Betzios '18 [5-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 5 4 2 5 2 3 21 Christopher Suarez '18
Ryan Barenklau '20
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 6 7 4 2 1 1 21 Colton Hard '19 [1-6]
Jonathan Rolling '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Hunter Meis '17 [3-4]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 7 5 5 7 5 7 36 Daniel Kendall '18
Sudi Turel '16
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 3 8 9 4 7 6 37 William Harvey '20 [1-6]
Carter Young '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Michael Hernandez '20 [3-4]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 4 6 6 8 8 5 37 Christopher Wilson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Gabriella Wong '20 [3]
Arosh Chaudhari '20 [4]
Emily Verdoia '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Arosh Chaudhari '20 [3]
Gabriella Wong '20 [4]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 8 9 8 6 6 8 45 Jessica Andres '20 [1-2]
Eli Fisher '21 [3-6]
Leland Van Deventer '20 [1-2]
William Hoover '20 [3-4]
Alexis Smith '19 [5-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 3 9 3 7 9 9 9 46 Hannah Gregory '17
Megan Carugati '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 1991144
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 210103355
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 1114466
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 2335577
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 3446688
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1557799
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 266881010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 1779911
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 288101033

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 110103355
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 2114466
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 1335577
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 2446688
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 3557799
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 166881010
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2779911
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 188101033
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 2991144
School / Team SkipperCrew
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Bradley Shaw '16 Sevanna Stewart '19
Aggies 1 Christopher Suarez '18 Ryan Barenklau '20
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Carson Pepper '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Morgan Frakes '17 [3-4]
Abigail Gregory '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Kirchner '17 [3-4]
Aggies 2 Colton Hard '19 [1-6] Jonathan Rolling '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Hunter Meis '17 [3-4]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Catherine Bristow '17 [1-6] Shelby Click '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Meghan O'Halloran '20 [3-4]
Aggies 3 Hannah Gregory '17 Megan Carugati '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Thomas Braly '19 Savannah Mapes '19
Aggies 1 Andrew Essenburgh '19 Aspen Spiker '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Bryndin Hartman '18 Mariana Perrigo '18
Aggies 2 Daniel Kendall '18 Sudi Turel '16
Tulane University Tulane University Malcolm Kriegel '18 [1-2]
Nick Watts '18 [3-4]
Harris Cram '19 [5-6]
Rocio Madruga '18 [1-2]
Sophia Clark '18 [3-4]
Allison Woolverton '19 [5-6]
Green Wave 1 James Mcavoy '20 [1-2, 5-6]
David Graf '19 [3-4]
Alex Burgers '20 [1-2]
Grace Bloomfield '19 [3-4]
Alexandra Betzios '18 [5-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Catie Cullen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Mary Berg '20 [3-4]
Stephen Hahn '20 [1-2]
Addison Adams '17 [3-4]
Sophia Ricker '19 [5-6]
Green Wave 2 Jessica Andres '20 [1-2]
Eli Fisher '21 [3-6]
Leland Van Deventer '20 [1-2]
William Hoover '20 [3-4]
Alexis Smith '19 [5-6]
University of Texas University of Texas Aaron Comen '18 [1-6] Jordin Perry '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Carlos Zamora '19 [3-4]
Longhorns 1 Christopher Wilson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Gabriella Wong '20 [3]
Arosh Chaudhari '20 [4]
Emily Verdoia '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Arosh Chaudhari '20 [3]
Gabriella Wong '20 [4]
University of Texas University of Texas Anish Zute '18 [1-6] Eugene Harrison '20 [1-2]
Shawn Xu '20 [3-4]
Alejandro Paez Touche '18 [5-6]
Longhorns 2 William Harvey '20 [1-6] Carter Young '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Michael Hernandez '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine3.7 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1016.0 hPa Rain0.30 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →