University of Texas '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.37 (fleet -0.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–14 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 4–14 against 2.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-08 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | -0.13 | 1.20 | 4–5 | 2.5 | +1.32 | 1.4 | 18% |
| 2017-04-08 | 2017 SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | -0.68 | -3.68 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| SEISA Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.6 | 1.25 |
| Qualifier 1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | -1.89 |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | -0.62 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 10 | 18.0 | — |
| Barnyard Bizarre | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | -0.92 |
| 2018 Harris Kempner | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.0 | -0.62 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owlapalooza 2017 | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | -1.86 |
| Kilpatrick Regatta 2017 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 1.02 |
| Back to the Bayou | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | -0.59 |
| Aggie Fall | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | -0.12 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.5 | -2.10 |
| Harris Kempner Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | -1.26 |
| Garner Tullis | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | -1.61 |
| Barnyard Bizzare | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | -2.42 |
| 2017 SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.3 | -1.26 |
| Owlapalooza | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.1 | -3.10 |
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | -1.09 |
| Back to the Bayou | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Qualifier 1 | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | -0.09 |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.3 | -2.19 |
| Buckeye Intersectional | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | -0.40 |
| SEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.0 | -1.03 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | -1.23 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Qualifier 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | -0.59 |
| Barnyard Bazaar | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.8 | -1.24 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Kathryn Hammond Memorial | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.3 | 0.08 |
| Aggie Fall | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | -2.66 |
| Troy Swetnam Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 0.82 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
