Aggie Fall

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 10 13 23
2 University of West Florida University of West Florida Argonauts 20 5 25
3 Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 1 16 14 30
4 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 22 10 32
5 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 12 26 38
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 31 19 50
7 Rice University Rice University Owls 20 32 52
8 Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 2 23 32 55
9 University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 27 29 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 5 2 2 10 Ryan Murphy '15
Jacob Hafemeister '16
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 2 1 5 4 12 Alexander Judd '16
Hunter Ledonne '15
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 1 6 2 1 7 16 Ian Jones '15
Rachel Olsen '18
University of West Florida University of West Florida Argonauts 3 6 3 8 20 Anthony Scott '17
No Show
Rice University Rice University Owls 5 3 6 6 20 Zelun Wang '16
Nicholas Cornell '15
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 4 DSQ 7 1 22 Erin Hawk '16 [1-2]
Tracy Hawk '16 [3-4]
Alyssa Schultz '16 [1-2]
Stephanie Meals '15 [3-4]
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 2 8 4 8 3 23 Sydney Pinegar '18
Kaitlyn Nathman '18
University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 7 7 4 9 27 Mikasa Barnes '17
Kinsey Tedford '15
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 9 8 9 5 31 Aaron Comen '18 [1-2]
Maximilian Neidhardt '17 [3-4]
Brinley Kranz '16 [1-2]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of West Florida University of West Florida Argonauts 1 1 2 1 5 Zachary Grant '15
No Show
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 4 3 1 2 10 Benjamin Lipari '18
No Show
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3 2 3 5 13 Kayla Sonnier '15
Amanda Reyes '15
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 1 2 4 5 3 14 Zachariah Duck '15
Kelsea Hull '18
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 5 6 4 4 19 Ashlynd Epstein '16 [1-4]
Samantha Robbins '18 [1-2]
Marissa Morrison '15 [3-4]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 6 5 6 9 26 Ron Joseph Lastimosa '16 [1-4]
Michael Hernandez '18 [1-2]
No Show [3-4]
University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 8 8 7 6 29 Jordan Johnson '17
Rachael Hoover '17
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 2 7 9 9 7 32 Kathryn Rykard '15
Aubrey Mccutchan '18
Rice University Rice University Owls 9 7 8 8 32 Nicholas Anhold '15 [1-3]
Luisa De Carterer '15 [4]
Michelle Bowen '15 [1-2]
Luisa De Carterer '15 [3]
Nicholas Anhold '15 [4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos6688
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys 11133
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys 22244
Rice UniversityRice University Owls3355
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 17799
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 28811
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies4466
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies5577
University of West FloridaUniversity of West Florida Argonauts9922

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos7799
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys 12244
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys 23355
Rice UniversityRice University Owls4466
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 18811
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 29922
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies5577
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies6688
University of West FloridaUniversity of West Florida Argonauts1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Ian Jones '15 Rachel Olsen '18
Cowboys 1 Zachariah Duck '15 Kelsea Hull '18
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Sydney Pinegar '18 Kaitlyn Nathman '18
Cowboys 2 Kathryn Rykard '15 Aubrey Mccutchan '18
Rice University Rice University Zelun Wang '16 Nicholas Cornell '15
Owls Nicholas Anhold '15 [1-3]
Luisa De Carterer '15 [4]
Michelle Bowen '15 [1-2]
Luisa De Carterer '15 [3]
Nicholas Anhold '15 [4]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Erin Hawk '16 [1-2]
Tracy Hawk '16 [3-4]
Alyssa Schultz '16 [1-2]
Stephanie Meals '15 [3-4]
Aggies Benjamin Lipari '18 No Show
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Ryan Murphy '15 Jacob Hafemeister '16
Aggies Kayla Sonnier '15 Amanda Reyes '15
University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Mikasa Barnes '17 Kinsey Tedford '15
Bronchos Jordan Johnson '17 Rachael Hoover '17
University of Texas University of Texas Alexander Judd '16 Hunter Ledonne '15
Longhorns 1 Ron Joseph Lastimosa '16 [1-4] Michael Hernandez '18 [1-2]
No Show [3-4]
University of Texas University of Texas Aaron Comen '18 [1-2]
Maximilian Neidhardt '17 [3-4]
Brinley Kranz '16 [1-2]
Longhorns 2 Ashlynd Epstein '16 [1-4] Samantha Robbins '18 [1-2]
Marissa Morrison '15 [3-4]
University of West Florida University of West Florida Anthony Scott '17 No Show
Argonauts Zachary Grant '15 No Show

Conditions — 11/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 34%  ·  Pressure 1028.1 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity34% Pressure1028.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Texas A&M: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.37 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Texas A&M, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →