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SEISA Qualifier 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 14 12 26
2 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 23 18 41
3 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 32 29 61
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 42 34 76
5 Rice University Rice University Owls 31 58 89
6 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 3 46 65 111
7 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 66 52 118
8 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 73 50 123
9 Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 57 80 137
10 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 76 70 146
11 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 86 70 156
12 University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 78 87 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 5 14 John Hanna '19
Andrew Essenburgh '19
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 2 3 3 2 6 2 3 2 23 Bradley Shaw '16 [1-8]
Raymond Hamilton '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Hunter Meis '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Rice University Rice University Owls 5 1 1 7 4 4 5 4 31 Samuel Papert '19
Kevin Li '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 7 8 4 3 2 5 2 1 32 Alex Schwinn '19
Chris Stuewer '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 6 5 9 4 5 6 4 3 42 Harris Cram '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Nick Watts '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Grace Bloomfield '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Katherine Robinson '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 3 3 6 8 5 3 3 7 11 46 Erin Hawk '16 [1-8]
Sevanna Stewart '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Megan Carugati '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 4 4 5 9 10 7 10 8 57 Sean Fischer '18
Rachel Olsen '18
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 10 11 7 10 7 9 6 6 66 Ashlynd Epstein '16 [1-8]
Alec Chappetta '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sam Robbins '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 8 7 10 6 8 12 12 10 73 Simon Varga '17
Ron Joseph Lastimosa '16
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 9 9 11 8 11 8 8 12 76 Morgan Frakes '17
Colton Hard '19
University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 12 12 6 11 9 10 9 9 78 Mikasa Barnes '17 [1-8]
No Show [1-2, 7-8]
Marissa Buller '18 [3-4]
Zhi Inn Cheong '19 [5-6]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 11 10 12 12 12 11 11 7 86 Benjamin Moreno '17
Nathan Waguespack '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 12 Alexander Thompson '18
Joseph Rogalski '19
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 4 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 18 Tracy Hawk '16
Walter Pospick '17
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 1 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 29 Thomas Braly '19
Aspen Spiker '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 5 9 4 2 2 5 2 5 34 David Graf '19 [1-8]
Alexandra Betzios '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Theodore Rudic '19 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 9 3 7 11 7 6 4 3 50 Caroline Bik '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Lisanne Hoekstra '17 [3-4]
Madeline Cotely '18 [1-4]
Lisanne Hoekstra '17 [5-8]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 6 6 5 10 5 3 6 11 52 Aaron Comen '18
Kyle Cobbs '19
Rice University Rice University Owls 7 5 6 6 8 7 10 9 58 Elena Busch '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Zelun Wang '16 [5-6]
Javier Lehtinen '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Zelun Wang '16 [3-4]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 3 8 7 8 5 10 DNF 8 6 65 Catherine Bristow '17
Alexandra Oyston '18
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 3 8 11 9 12 10 9 8 70 Carson Pepper '17
Matthew Kirchner '17
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 10 11 10 7 6 8 11 7 70 Kevin Dirksmeyer '17
Nathan Waguespack '17
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 12 12 9 8 11 11 7 10 80 Shayna Borgfeld '17
Micah Swedberg '19
University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 11 10 12 12 9 9 12 12 87 Jordan Johnson '17 [1-8]
Rachael Hoover '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Blair Johnson '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (34 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos111114142244
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys11336688
Rice UniversityRice University Owls22447799
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 11313113366
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 21414224477
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 13366881010
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 24477991111
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 3668810101313
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders779911111414
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1881010131311
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2991111141422
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave101013131133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos1313113366
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys22447799
Rice UniversityRice University Owls3366881010
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 11414224477
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 211336688
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 14477991111
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 2668810101313
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 3779911111414
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders881010131311
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1991111141422
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2101013131133
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave111114142244
School / Team SkipperCrew
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Sean Fischer '18 Rachel Olsen '18
Cowboys Shayna Borgfeld '17 Micah Swedberg '19
Rice University Rice University Samuel Papert '19 Kevin Li '19
Owls Elena Busch '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Zelun Wang '16 [5-6]		 Javier Lehtinen '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Zelun Wang '16 [3-4]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Bradley Shaw '16 [1-8] Raymond Hamilton '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Hunter Meis '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Aggies 1 Tracy Hawk '16 Walter Pospick '17
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Morgan Frakes '17 Colton Hard '19
Aggies 2 Carson Pepper '17 Matthew Kirchner '17
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Erin Hawk '16 [1-8] Sevanna Stewart '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Megan Carugati '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Aggies 3 Catherine Bristow '17 Alexandra Oyston '18
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Benjamin Moreno '17 Nathan Waguespack '17
Islanders Kevin Dirksmeyer '17 Nathan Waguespack '17
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Alex Schwinn '19 Chris Stuewer '19
Aggies 1 Thomas Braly '19 Aspen Spiker '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston John Hanna '19 Andrew Essenburgh '19
Aggies 2 Alexander Thompson '18 Joseph Rogalski '19
Tulane University Tulane University Harris Cram '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Nick Watts '18 [3-4, 7-8]		 Grace Bloomfield '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Katherine Robinson '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Green Wave David Graf '19 [1-8] Alexandra Betzios '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Theodore Rudic '19 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Mikasa Barnes '17 [1-8] No Show [1-2, 7-8]
Marissa Buller '18 [3-4]
Zhi Inn Cheong '19 [5-6]
Bronchos Jordan Johnson '17 [1-8] Rachael Hoover '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Blair Johnson '19 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Texas University of Texas Simon Varga '17 Ron Joseph Lastimosa '16
Longhorns 1 Caroline Bik '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Lisanne Hoekstra '17 [3-4]		 Madeline Cotely '18 [1-4]
Lisanne Hoekstra '17 [5-8]
University of Texas University of Texas Ashlynd Epstein '16 [1-8] Alec Chappetta '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sam Robbins '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Longhorns 2 Aaron Comen '18 Kyle Cobbs '19

Conditions — 01/30/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1011.6 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.9 kn
avg  ·  max 12.1 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From SSW (196°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1011.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Texas: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at Texas).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →