Nelson Roltsch

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 7 6 13
2 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 12 16 28
3 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 19 21 40
4 Rice University Rice University Owls 23 21 44
5 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 33 40 73
6 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 33 44 77
7 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 41 37 78
8 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 48 32 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 James Mcavoy '20
Stephen Hahn '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 1 2 2 2 3 12 Alexander Thompson '18 [1-3]
Ian Beck '19 [4-6]
Amanda Olson '19 [1-3]
Katerina Meyer '21 [4-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 3 3 4 4 3 2 19 Mary Berg '20
Sophia Ricker '19
Rice University Rice University Owls 4 4 3 3 5 4 23 Carter Walker '20
Minoti Kale '17
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 5 7 6 6 4 5 33 Chase Clark '20
Christopher George '20
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 6 5 5 5 6 6 33 Aaron Comen '18
Lillian Andersen '21
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 7 6 7 7 7 7 41 Patrick Burtchaell '18
Vanessa Tetzlaff '21
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 8 8 8 8 8 8 48 Amelia Knapp '21 [1-6]
Kiefer Chaudhari '21 [1-3]
John Mcdavid V '21 [4-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Caelan Watts '21 [1-3]
David Graf '19 [4-6]
Grace Bloomfield '19 [1-3]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 2 4 4 2 2 16 Andrew Essenburgh '19 [1-3]
Thomas Braly '19 [4-6]
Hannah Barlow '20 [1-3]
Bailey Miller '21 [4-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 3 5 2 2 4 5 21 Clementine Furber '21
Katherine Robinson '19
Rice University Rice University Owls 4 3 3 3 5 3 21 Loren Young '21
Anna Cole '20
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 5 4 5 DSQ 3 6 32 Jules Bettler '20 [1-6]
Jacob Patterson '19 [1-3]
Austin Mccanless '20 [4-6]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 7 7 6 5 8 4 37 Sofia Giordano '20
Ben Goldberg '21
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 6 6 7 7 7 7 40 Michael Hernandez '20 [1-3]
Carter Young '20 [4-6]
Mckenzie Kotara '21 [1-3]
Frederik Winguth '21 [4-6]
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 8 8 8 6 6 8 44 Jack Brownlee '20
Elliott Bates '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack111444
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks222555
Rice UniversityRice University Owls444777
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns101010222
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies555888
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies777999
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave888101010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women999111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack222555
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks444777
Rice UniversityRice University Owls555888
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns111444
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies777999
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies888101010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave999111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women101010222

Conditions — 02/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 24.3 kn
From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1020.1 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.54 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →