Tulane University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 (fleet 2.75) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 40–54 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 4 | 16–25 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 19–24 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (92 matches) the record is 40–52 against 43.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-24 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.32 | 5.32 | 9–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 96% |
| 2021-03-06 | 3GT team race | skipper | 2.38 | 1.28 | 6–9 | 8.6 | −1.11 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2021-02-28 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 2.30 | 3.13 | 1–14 | 0.5 | +0.83 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 2019-04-20 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.10 | 1.86 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.04 | -0.96 | 0–10 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| 2019-03-09 | Garner-Tullis Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | 4.93 | 11–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 67% |
| 2019-02-16 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 1.80 | -1.18 | 2–10 | 3.1 | −2.98 | 1.6 | >99% |
| 2018-04-08 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.38 | 1.85 | 5–5 | 4.6 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| SEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | -2.05 |
| The Seahawk Wave Showdown | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | — |
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Nelson Roltsch Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.6 | 2.94 |
| Navy Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| 3GT team race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| 3GT Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | -0.38 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.2 | 2.65 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Match Race Elimination Keelboat | Crew | A | — | — | — |
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 1.72 |
| 2019 Coed Champs | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.3 | 2.84 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | 2.98 |
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| SEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.8 | 2.08 |
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.9 | 1.70 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.3 | 1.92 |
| Garner-Tullis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 100% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.0 | 2.74 |
| All-State Sugar Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 12.4 | — |
| Troy Swetman Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | -2.88 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| SEISA Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.8 | 1.66 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.3 | 2.52 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 2.18 |
| Back to the Bayou | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 0.83 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
