Nelson Roltsch Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 151
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 160
3 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 160
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 162
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners 185
6 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 185
7 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 211
8 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 239
9 Tulane University Tulane University Riptide 257
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 8 1 9 1 1 6 1 2 2 17 48 Cameron Giblin '23
Lydia Brown '23
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave A 5 2 2 2 12 9 2 10 4 3 51 Marcus Huttunen '24
Gillian Perrell '24
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins B 2 5 7 11 3 17 8 4 1 8 66 Telmo Basterra '21
Mia Porter '22
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women A 18 7 5 3 2 1 14 9 3 5 67 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22
Grace Siwicki '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 7 3 1 6 7 14 11 1 6 15 71 Andre Guaragna '21
Caroline Bourgeois '22
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women A 16 4 6 5 8 8 7 16 9 6 85 Marina Barzaghi '21 [1-10]
Carolina Perez Rovira '22 [1-3]
Lily Theisen '23 [4-10]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 3 9 4 9 5 13 9 18 10 9 89 Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21
Grace Benzal '23
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners A 9 17 3 15 14 7 3 7 14 1 90 Samuel Baker '22
Lauren Theis '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners B 11 8 15 8 13 4 5 6 11 14 95 Chris Kiener '21
Logan Brickhouse '21
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 1 6 17 10 11 3 6 14 15 13 96 Kathryn Bornarth '21
Samantha Kappaz '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins A 14 13 18 16 4 5 13 3 8 2 96 Charlotte Rose '22
Lucien Parker '24
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide A 12 15 13 13 16 2 10 5 5 11 102 William Keenan '23 [1-5]
Caelan Watts '21 [6-10]
Katherine Byrnes '21 [1-5]
Amelia Schofield '22 [6-10]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 15 16 12 7 9 10 4 8 12 10 103 Asher Zittrer '23
Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave B 13 12 8 12 17 11 12 13 7 4 109 Thad Lettsome '24
Katherine Cartiglia '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women B 4 18 11 4 15 16 15 15 13 7 118 Caroline Benson '23 [1-10]
Abigail Borggaard '24 [1-5]
Alanna Austin '21 [6-10]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women B 10 10 10 18 6 15 18 11 16 12 126 Sydney Monahan '23
Olivia Smith '23
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 6 14 16 14 18 12 17 12 18 16 143 Lexie Foos '22
Chloe Sweeting '22
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide B 17 11 14 17 10 18 16 17 17 18 155 Mia Hanes '24 [1-5]
Erik Schumann '22 [6-8]
Eli Eckhouse '21 [9-10]
Kit Stoll '23 [1-5]
Isabella Bentz '24 [6-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins10101010101010101010
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins9999999999
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Spinners11111111111111111111
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls16161616161616161616
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women15151515151515151515
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave3333333333
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave1111111111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women2222222222
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide4444444444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins13131313131313131313
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins12121212121212121212
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Spinners14141414141414141414
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls18181818181818181818
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women17171717171717171717
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave7777777777
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave5555555555
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women6666666666
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide8888888888

Conditions — 02/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 22.5 kn
From SSE (162°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1017.9 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.13 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.51 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →