Nelson Roltsch Team Race

HostTulane
Date02/16/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	14–0
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–2
3	Jacksonville University	Fins	10–4
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	8–6
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	6–8
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	4–10
7	University of Texas	Longhorns	2–12
8	Miami University	Red Hawks	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,889 team race matches sailed before 2019-02-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 56 matches (96%) with a log-loss of 0.157 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.28: an orderly event, more orderly than 88% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	10.10 school +0.36	Jack Brown / Mary Morano 3.11 Alie Toppa / Katherine Lounsbury 3.47 Steven Leuck / Payton Alexander 3.10	87%	14–0 (100%)	+1.9
2	Stanford University Cardinal	2	9.76 school +0.53	John Kirkpatrick / Laurel Foster Wiley Rogers / Victoria Thompson Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Mathew Hogan	82%	12–2 (86%)	+0.5
3	Jacksonville University Fins	4	8.24	Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Daniel Ofarril 2.99 Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 2.66 Jack Gower / Elisabeth Bowman	60%	10–4 (71%)	+1.7
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3	9.25 school +0.07	Lucas Pierce / Robert Johnson 3.22 David Eastwood / Claire Hunt 3.00 Quinn Wilson / Sampson Reynolds 2.83	75%	8–6 (57%)	−2.5
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	5	7.21 school −0.21	Alex Schwinn / Leena Siiteri 2.39 John Hanna / Ava Cares 3.06 Jonathan Sager / Connor Sager 1.85	46%	6–8 (43%)	−0.4
6	Tulane University Green Wave	6	6.22 home +0.41	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Grace Bloomfield 4–8 Caelan Watts / Kate Lenhard 1.80 2–8 Harris Cram / Sophia Ricker 1.74 2–6 Grace Siwicki / Sophia Ricker 2–2 Harris Cram / Kate Lenhard 1.74 2–0 Caelan Watts / Stephen Hahn 1.89 0–2 Harris Cram / Kevin Conrad 1.71 0–2 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Katherine Robinson 0–2	36%	4–10 (29%)	−1.0
7	University of Texas Longhorns	7	2.64	Emily Verdoia / Arosh Chaudhari 1.05 Banks Blackwell / Jordin Perry Karina Bertelsmann / Mckenzie Kotara	14%	2–12 (14%)	+0.0
8	Miami University Red Hawks	8	0.09	Susannah Schroeder / Graham Gunderman Zachary Anderson / Jack Brownlee 0–8 Jacob Maher / Jacob Veta 0–8 Jack Brownlee / Jacob Maher 0–6 Zachary Anderson / Jacob Veta 0–6	1%	0–14 (0%)	−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	College of Charleston	10.10	13.10	14–0	12.1	≥+3.00	3.1	10%
3	Jacksonville University	8.24	9.23	10–4	8.3	+0.99	1.2	17%
2	Stanford University	9.76	10.11	12–2	11.5	+0.35	0.1	52%
7	University of Texas	2.64	2.67	2–12	2.0	+0.03	0.0	87%
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston	7.21	6.92	6–8	6.4	−0.29	0.1	78%
6	Tulane University	6.22	4.90	4–10	5.0	−1.32	0.9	97%
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.25	7.62	8–6	10.5	−1.62	2.9	99%
8	Miami University	0.09	-2.91	0–14	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	3.11	6.11	14–0	12.1	≥+3.00	3.1	10%
Alie Toppa	College of Charleston	3.47	6.47	14–0	12.1	≥+3.00	3.1	10%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	2.99	3.98	10–4	8.3	+0.99	1.2	17%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.66	3.65	10–4	8.3	+0.99	1.2	17%
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo	Stanford University	2.79	3.14	12–2	11.5	+0.35	0.1	52%
Grace Siwicki	Tulane University	0.89	1.23	2–2	1.9	+0.34	0.0	90%
Emily Verdoia	University of Texas	1.05	1.08	2–12	2.0	+0.03	0.0	87%
Banks Blackwell	University of Texas	0.71	0.74	2–12	2.0	+0.03	0.0	87%
Karina Bertelsmann	University of Texas	0.35	0.38	2–12	2.0	+0.03	0.0	87%
Alex Schwinn	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.39	2.10	6–8	6.4	−0.29	0.1	78%
John Hanna	Texas A&M University at Galveston	3.06	2.77	6–8	6.4	−0.29	0.1	78%
Jonathan Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.85	1.56	6–8	6.4	−0.29	0.1	78%
Harris Cram	Tulane University	1.74	0.44	4–8	4.9	−1.30	0.8	97%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	2.14	0.82	4–10	5.0	−1.32	0.9	97%
Quinn Wilson	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.83	1.20	8–6	10.5	−1.62	2.9	99%
Caelan Watts	Tulane University	1.80	-1.18	2–10	3.1	−2.98	1.6	>99%
Zachary Anderson	Miami University	-0.37	-3.37	0–14	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Jacob Maher	Miami University	-0.35	-3.35	0–8	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Jack Brownlee	Miami University	-0.44	-3.44	0–6	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	91%
1	2	University of Texas	Miami University	93%
1	3	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	85%
1	4	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	72%
1	5	Stanford University	Miami University	100%
1	6	Jacksonville University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	71%
1	7	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Texas	100%
1	8	College of Charleston	Tulane University	98%
1	9	Jacksonville University	Miami University	100%
1	10	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	61%
1	11	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Tulane University	70%
1	12	College of Charleston	University of Texas	100%
1	13	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	26%	upset
1	14	Tulane University	Miami University	100%
1	15	Stanford University	University of Texas	100%
1	16	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	95%
1	17	University of California at Santa Barbara	Tulane University	98%
1	18	Jacksonville University	University of Texas	100%
1	19	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Miami University	100%
1	20	College of Charleston	Stanford University	59%
1	21	Tulane University	University of Texas	95%
1	22	University of California at Santa Barbara	Texas A&M University at Galveston	88%
1	23	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	82%
1	24	College of Charleston	Miami University	100%
1	25	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Texas	99%
1	26	Stanford University	Tulane University	97%
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara	Miami University	100%
1	28	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	86%
2	29	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	93%
2	30	University of Texas	Miami University	92%
2	31	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	85%
2	32	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	70%
2	33	Stanford University	Miami University	100%
2	34	Jacksonville University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	75%
2	35	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Texas	100%
2	36	College of Charleston	Tulane University	97%
2	37	Jacksonville University	Miami University	100%
2	38	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	64%
2	39	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Tulane University	66%
2	40	College of Charleston	University of Texas	100%
2	41	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	28%	upset
2	42	Tulane University	Miami University	100%
2	43	Stanford University	University of Texas	100%
2	44	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	95%
2	45	University of California at Santa Barbara	Tulane University	97%
2	46	Jacksonville University	University of Texas	100%
2	47	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Miami University	100%
2	48	College of Charleston	Stanford University	56%
2	49	Tulane University	University of Texas	95%
2	50	University of California at Santa Barbara	Texas A&M University at Galveston	89%
2	51	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	82%
2	52	College of Charleston	Miami University	100%
2	53	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Texas	99%
2	54	Stanford University	Tulane University	97%
2	55	University of California at Santa Barbara	Miami University	100%
2	56	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	85%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Cardinal	Fins	Gauchos	Aggies	Wave	Longhorns	Hawks
College of Charleston Cougars	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Texas Longhorns	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Miami University Red Hawks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Cardinal	Fins	Gauchos	Aggies	Wave	Longhorns	Hawks
College of Charleston Cougars	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Texas Longhorns	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Miami University Red Hawks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
2	Longhorns	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
3	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
4	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
5	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
6	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
7	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
8	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
9	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
11	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
12	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
13	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
14	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
15	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
17	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
18	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
19	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
20	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
21	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
22	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
23	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
24	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
25	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
27	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
28	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
29	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
30	Longhorns	1-2-4	def.	Red Hawks	3-5-6
31	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
32	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
33	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
34	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
35	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6 DNS
36	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
37	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
38	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
39	Aggies	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
41	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
42	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
44	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Aggies	1-4-6
45	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
46	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
47	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
48	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
49	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Longhorns	3-4-6 DNF
50	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
52	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6
53	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
55	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Red Hawks	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
56	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alie Toppa '20 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Mary Morano '21 Payton Alexander '19
Stanford University	Cardinal	John Kirkpatrick '22 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22 Wiley Rogers '22	Laurel Foster '22 Mathew Hogan '21 Victoria Thompson '21
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Jack Gower '20	Daniel Ofarril '22 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Elisabeth Bowman '22
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	David Eastwood '22 Lucas Pierce '21 Quinn Wilson '21	Claire Hunt '19 Robert Johnson '19 Sampson Reynolds '21
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Alex Schwinn '19 John Hanna '19 Jonathan Sager '20	Leena Siiteri '21 Ava Cares '20 Connor Sager '20
Tulane University	Green Wave	Caelan Watts '21 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Grace Siwicki '22 Harris Cram '19	Stephen Hahn '20 Kate Lenhard '21 Katherine Robinson '19 Grace Bloomfield '19 Sophia Ricker '19 Kevin Conrad '19
University of Texas	Longhorns	Banks Blackwell '20 Emily Verdoia '20 Karina Bertelsmann '22	Jordin Perry '20 Arosh Chaudhari '20 Mckenzie Kotara '21
Miami University	Red Hawks	Jack Brownlee '20 Jacob Maher '22 Susannah Schroeder '22 Zachary Anderson '21	Jacob Maher '22 Jacob Veta '19 Graham Gunderman '22 Jack Brownlee '20

Conditions — 02/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 83% · Pressure 1009.5 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.7 kn

avg · max 6.3 kn

Gusts to 11.5 kn

From SW (223°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1009.5 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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