Stanford University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.39 (fleet 4.71) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 81–29 (74%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 11–0 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 9–0 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 24–16 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 37–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (108 matches) the record is 79–29 against 86.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-06 | Gaucho Fall Team Race | skipper | 3.52 | 6.53 | 11–0 | 10.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 40% |
| 2021-04-25 | PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.50 | 6.50 | 9–0 | 8.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| 2020-03-07 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 2.74 | 12–12 | 14.7 | −0.62 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2020-02-22 | Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.53 | 2.66 | 12–4 | 13.6 | −0.87 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.44 | 2.15 | 8–10 | 12.7 | −1.28 | 4.4 | >99% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 3.13 | 15–1 | 15.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2019-02-16 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 3.14 | 12–2 | 11.5 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 52% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
