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PCCSC Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 9–0
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6–3
3 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2–7
4 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,658 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 18 matches (94%) with a log-loss of 0.145 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 71% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		111.52
school +0.45, home +0.34		Jack Parkin / Anaclare Sole 3.87
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Patricia Gerli 3.50
Michelle Lahrkamp / Sammy Pickell 3.34		97%9–0 (100%)+0.3
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		29.23Quinn Wilson / Chris Kayda 3.23
David Eastwood / Sydney Aguirre 2.88
Lucas Pierce / Samantha Obel 3.08		67%6–3 (67%)+0.0
3University of Hawaii
Rainbows		36.70
school +0.06		Bastien Rasse / Devon Stapleton 2.68
Samuel Patton / Trey Summers
Owen Lahr / Frances Tarpey-Schwed 2.14		28%2–7 (22%)−0.6
4University of California at San Diego
Tritons		45.47Nicholas Dorn / Svenja Leonard 1.78
Nigel Lipps / Molly Rowland 1.77
Noah Barton / Blair Caccam 1.69		8%1–8 (11%)+0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University11.5214.529–08.7≥+3.000.473%
4University of California at San Diego5.475.841–80.8+0.370.157%
2University of California at Santa Barbara9.239.256–36.0+0.020.080%
3University of Hawaii6.705.982–72.6−0.710.390%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Telis Athanasopoulos YogoStanford University3.506.509–08.7≥+3.000.473%
Nigel LippsUniversity of California at San Diego1.772.131–80.8+0.370.157%
Quinn WilsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.233.256–36.0+0.020.080%
Bastien RasseUniversity of Hawaii2.681.972–72.6−0.710.390%
Samuel PattonUniversity of Hawaii1.600.882–72.6−0.710.390%
Owen LahrUniversity of Hawaii2.141.432–72.6−0.710.390%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at San Diego100%
12University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii94%
13Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara91%
14University of HawaiiUniversity of California at San Diego77%
15University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at San Diego98%
16Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%
27Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at San Diego100%
28University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii93%
29Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara91%
210University of HawaiiUniversity of California at San Diego77%
211University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at San Diego98%
212Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%
313Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at San Diego100%
314University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii92%
315Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara91%
316University of California at San DiegoUniversity of Hawaii23%upset
317University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at San Diego97%
318Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosRainbowsTritons
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows1–2LL✕W
University of California at San Diego Tritons0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosRainbowsTritons
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows1–2LL✕W
University of California at San Diego Tritons0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosRainbowsTritons
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows0–3LL✕L
University of California at San Diego Tritons1–2LLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
2 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-5
3 Stanford University Cardinal 1-3-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-5
4 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-4-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-4-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
7 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-6
10 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
13 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
14 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
16 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2-3-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-4-6
17 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-4-6
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SW (215°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.7 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1013.0 hPa Rain0.07 in

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →