University of California at San Diego '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–8 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 4–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 5–8 against 3.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-25 | PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.77 | 2.13 | 1–8 | 0.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.54 | 4.54 | 4–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 36% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.7 | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.04 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.8 | 3.77 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.8 | 2.96 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.8 | 0.88 |
| 2020 Rose Bowl - College | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.6 | 2.57 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
