| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
California Maritime Academy | Keelhaulers | 4–0 |
| 1 |  |
Cal Poly University S.L.O. | Mustangs 1 | 4–0 |
| 1 |  |
University of California at San Diego | Tritons | 4–0 |
| 4 |  |
University of California at Berkeley | Bears 1 | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of California at Los Angeles | Bruins | 3–4 |
| 6 | |
University of California at Berkeley | Bears 2 | 2–5 |
| 7 | |
Cal Poly University S.L.O. | Mustangs 2 | 0–4 |
| 8 |  |
California State University Monterey Bay | Otters | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,153 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 21 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.141 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.54 ± 0.40: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers | 7.88 | 10.88 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 94% |
| 1 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 | 5.51 | 8.51 | 4–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 1 | University of California at San Diego Tritons | 5.01 | 8.01 | 4–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 36% |
| 6 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 | 2.61 | 2.34 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 5 | University of California at Los Angeles Bruins | 3.71 | 3.39 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 4 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 | 4.88 | 4.24 | 4–3 | 4.5 | −0.65 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 8 | California State University Monterey Bay Otters | 1.74 | -1.26 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 7 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 | -0.43 | -3.43 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Keelhaulers | 1 | Tritons | 1 | Bruins | 2 | 2 | Otters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers | 4–0 | ✕ | – | – | W | W | W | – | W |
| Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 | 4–4 | – | ✕ | L | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of California at San Diego Tritons | 4–0 | – | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | – |
| University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 | 6–8 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W |
| University of California at Los Angeles Bruins | 3–4 | L | W | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 | 6–8 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 | 4–4 | – | ✕ | L | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| California State University Monterey Bay Otters | 0–5 | L | L | – | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mustangs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Otters | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Tritons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mustangs 2 | 2-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 5 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Otters | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mustangs 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Otters | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Mustangs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mustangs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Otters | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Mustangs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Otters | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
