University of California at Los Angeles '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 (fleet 1.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–24 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 7–13 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 10–24 against 9.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-08 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.18 | 3.57 | 6–8 | 3.1 | +2.39 | 5.0 | 1% |
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.26 | -0.31 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 98% |
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.28 | 0.97 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 0.77 | -2.23 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | -0.28 |
| North Designate/St. Francis | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 1.68 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 2.38 |
| Jeff Simon Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.6 | 1.65 |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.1 | 1.11 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.1 | 1.44 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 1.63 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.3 | 1.36 |
| 2022 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.8 | 0.35 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 1.82 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.1 | 2.53 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 1.25 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 1.20 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 1.42 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.8 | 1.36 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.9 | 1.59 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Southern Area Designate | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 1.33 |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 2.22 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 16.2 | -0.17 |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.9 | 1.16 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.0 | 0.80 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 0.80 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
