Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship

HostUC Santa Barbara
Date04/08/2022
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–0
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	12–2
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	8–6
4	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	6–8
5	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	5–4
6	San Diego State University	Aztecs	4–5
7	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	2–7
8	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	2–7
9	University of Washington	Huskies	1–8
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,173 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 47 of 55 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.333 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.12 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	10.67 school +0.46	Jack Parkin / Sammy Pickell 3.72 10–0 Wiley Rogers / Anaclare Sole 3.33 10–0 Hannah Freeman / Patricia Gerli 3.17 7–0 Hannah Freeman / Mathew Hogan 3.13 4–0 Wiley Rogers / Patricia Gerli 3.29 4–0 Jack Parkin / Anaclare Sole 3.77 3–0 Stephanie Houck / Mathew Hogan 3.06 2–0 Stephanie Houck / Patricia Gerli 3.11 1–0 Jack Parkin / Laurel Foster 3.73 1–0	96%	14–0 (100%)	+0.6
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2	9.34 school −0.20, home +0.35	Chris Kayda / Joseph Politi 2.99 9–2 Sidney Gathrid / Tristan Richmond 2.90 9–2 David Eastwood / Sydney Aguirre 3.28 10–0 David Eastwood / Jake Zieba 3.21 2–2 Chris Kayda / Kyla Murphy 3.08 3–0 Sidney Gathrid / Julia Roudebush 2.96 3–0	83%	12–2 (86%)	+0.4
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	4	7.93 school +0.10	Owen Lahr / Frances Tarpey-Schwed 2.23 7–6 Bastien Rasse / Devon Stapleton 2.86 6–6 Samuel Patton / Sam Kimmel 2.64 6–6 Bastien Rasse / Vivian Bonsager 2.85 2–0 Samuel Patton / Trey Summers 2.66 2–0 Trey Summers / Vivian Bonsager 1–0	59%	8–6 (57%)	−0.3
4	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	8	4.59 school −0.67	Gideon Burnes Heath / Mary Jane Howland 1.95 Ian Marshall / Teresa Dang 1.18 Marianna Shand / Emma Worthington 2.02	22%	6–8 (43%)	+2.9
5	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	3	7.04 school +0.21	Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Madeline Rivera 2.60 Maxwell Roth / Garrett Wymer 2.12 Clay Myers / Etienne Quille 2.04	67%	5–4 (56%)	−1.0
6	San Diego State University Aztecs	9	3.77	Blake Buckner / Charlotte Hinman Ian Collignon / Christopher Hopkins Casey Gignac / Beverly Schimmel 3–2 Casey Gignac / Tegan Smith 1–3	22%	4–5 (44%)	+2.0
7	University of California at San Diego Tritons	6	4.13 school +0.14	Nicholas Dorn / Mufei Li 2.15 Noah Barton / Drake Coy 1.49 Mckenna Roonan / Megan Saenz 0.24	27%	2–7 (22%)	−0.4
8	University of California at Berkeley Bears	10	3.65	Ethan Lisle / Sophia Jacobs 0.83 Michael Mcculloch / Marlena Tavernier-Fine 1.29 Nate Ingebritson / Jessica Stewart 1.36	20%	2–7 (22%)	+0.2
9	University of Washington Huskies	7	3.87	Emily Smith / Brianne Abbott-Rogge 1.33 Samuel Delasanta / Judah Wong Thomas Pentimonti / Duncan Weiner	23%	1–8 (11%)	−1.1
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	5	5.50 school +0.22	Kai Ponting / Maura Darby 2.04 Max Case / Peyton Nienaber 1.37 Sean Ross / Corey Quillen 1.82	49%	1–8 (11%)	−3.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	10.67	13.67	14–0	13.4	≥+3.00	0.9	51%
4	University of California at Los Angeles	4.59	6.98	6–8	3.1	+2.39	5.0	1%
6	San Diego State University	3.77	5.56	4–5	2.0	+1.79	2.6	7%
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.34	9.78	12–2	11.6	+0.44	0.1	57%
8	University of California at Berkeley	3.65	3.86	2–7	1.8	+0.20	0.0	58%
3	University of Hawaii	7.93	7.67	8–6	8.3	−0.26	0.1	79%
7	University of California at San Diego	4.13	3.78	2–7	2.4	−0.36	0.1	80%
9	University of Washington	3.87	2.79	1–8	2.1	−1.08	0.8	94%
5	California Maritime Academy	7.04	5.79	5–4	6.0	−1.25	1.0	97%
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	5.50	2.47	1–8	4.4	−3.04	7.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.17	6.17	11–0	10.4	≥+3.00	0.9	52%
Gideon Burnes Heath	University of California at Los Angeles	1.95	4.34	6–8	3.1	+2.39	5.0	1%
Ian Marshall	University of California at Los Angeles	1.18	3.57	6–8	3.1	+2.39	5.0	1%
Blake Buckner	San Diego State University	1.77	3.56	4–5	2.0	+1.79	2.6	7%
Ian Collignon	San Diego State University	0.82	2.60	4–5	2.0	+1.79	2.6	7%
Sidney Gathrid	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.90	3.33	12–2	11.6	+0.44	0.1	57%
Ethan Lisle	University of California at Berkeley	0.83	1.03	2–7	1.8	+0.20	0.0	58%
Bastien Rasse	University of Hawaii	2.86	2.60	8–6	8.3	−0.26	0.1	79%
Samuel Patton	University of Hawaii	2.64	2.38	8–6	8.3	−0.26	0.1	79%
Owen Lahr	University of Hawaii	2.23	1.95	7–6	7.3	−0.28	0.1	79%
Samuel Delasanta	University of Washington	0.84	-0.24	1–8	2.1	−1.08	0.8	94%
Jacob Fisker-Andersen	California Maritime Academy	2.60	1.35	5–4	6.0	−1.25	1.0	97%
Maxwell Roth	California Maritime Academy	2.12	0.87	5–4	6.0	−1.25	1.0	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	San Diego State University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	10%	upset
1	2	California Maritime Academy	University of California at San Diego	95%
1	3	University of Hawaii	University of Washington	99%
1	4	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	5	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	100%
1	6	California Maritime Academy	San Diego State University	97%
1	7	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	92%
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at San Diego	100%
1	9	University of California at Los Angeles	University of Washington	69%
1	10	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	11	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	70%
1	12	University of California at Santa Barbara	San Diego State University	100%
1	13	University of California at Los Angeles	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	28%	upset
1	14	University of California at San Diego	University of California at Berkeley	62%
1	15	Stanford University	University of Washington	100%
1	16	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	81%
1	17	University of California at Los Angeles	California Maritime Academy	8%	upset
1	18	San Diego State University	University of California at Berkeley	53%
1	19	University of Washington	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	16%	upset
1	20	Stanford University	University of California at San Diego	100%
1	21	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	22	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	99%
1	23	California Maritime Academy	University of Washington	96%
1	24	San Diego State University	University of California at San Diego	43%	upset
1	25	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	99%
1	26	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at Berkeley	71%
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Washington	100%
1	28	University of Hawaii	University of California at San Diego	98%
1	29	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	82%
1	30	Stanford University	San Diego State University	100%
1	31	University of California at Berkeley	University of Washington	43%	upset
1	32	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at San Diego	60%
1	33	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	98%
1	34	University of Hawaii	San Diego State University	98%
1	35	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	97%
1	36	University of California at San Diego	University of Washington	54%
1	37	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	14%	upset
1	38	University of California at Los Angeles	San Diego State University	65%
1	39	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	90%
1	40	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	94%
1	41	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at San Diego	79%
1	42	San Diego State University	University of Washington	50%	upset
1	43	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	97%
1	44	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	97%
1	45	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	81%
1	46	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	80%
1	47	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	100%
1	48	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	49	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	94%
1	50	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	97%
1	51	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	81%
2	52	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	79%
2	53	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	100%
2	54	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	93%
2	55	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	99%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Bruins	Keelhaulers	Aztecs	Tritons	Bears	Huskies	Mustangs
Stanford University Cardinal	12–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	10–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	8–4	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	6–6	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
San Diego State University Aztecs	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at San Diego Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Bruins
Stanford University Cardinal	2–0	✕	–	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–0	–	✕	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	0–2	L	L	✕	–
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	0–2	L	L	–	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Aztecs	2-3-5	def.	Mustangs	1-4-6
2	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
3	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
4	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
5	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
6	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
7	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
8	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
9	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
11	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
12	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Aztecs	4-5-6
13	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
14	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
15	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
16	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6
17	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
18	Aztecs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
19	Huskies	1-3-4	def.	Mustangs	2-5-6
20	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
21	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
22	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
23	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
24	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
26	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
27	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
28	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
29	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Aztecs	4-5-6
31	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
32	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
33	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
34	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Aztecs	4-5-6
35	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
36	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
37	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
38	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Aztecs	3-4-5
39	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
41	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
42	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
43	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
44	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
45	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
46	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
48	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
49	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
50	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
52	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
53	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
55	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Jack Parkin '21 Stephanie Houck '21 Wiley Rogers '22	Patricia Gerli '23 Mathew Hogan '21 Sammy Pickell '22 Laurel Foster '22 Anaclare Sole '23
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Chris Kayda '23 David Eastwood '22 Sidney Gathrid '22	Kyla Murphy '23 Joseph Politi '22 Sydney Aguirre '22 Jake Zieba '22 Julia Roudebush '23 Tristan Richmond '22
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Bastien Rasse '23 Owen Lahr '23 Samuel Patton '22 Trey Summers '24	Devon Stapleton '22 Vivian Bonsager '25 Frances Tarpey-Schwed '23 Sam Kimmel '24 Trey Summers '24
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	Gideon Burnes Heath '23 Ian Marshall '22 Marianna Shand '24	Mary Jane Howland '22 Teresa Dang '24 Emma Worthington '23
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Clay Myers '25 Jacob Fisker-Andersen '21 Maxwell Roth '24	Etienne Quille '25 Madeline Rivera '22 Garrett Wymer '22
San Diego State University	Aztecs	Blake Buckner '24 Casey Gignac '22 Ian Collignon '23	Charlotte Hinman '22 Beverly Schimmel '25 Tegan Smith '24 Christopher Hopkins '25
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	Mckenna Roonan '21 Nicholas Dorn '22 Noah Barton '23	Megan Saenz '22 Mufei Li '25 Drake Coy '23
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Ethan Lisle '25 Michael Mcculloch '25 Nate Ingebritson '25	Sophia Jacobs '23 Marlena Tavernier-Fine '22 Jessica Stewart '23
University of Washington	Huskies	Emily Smith '25 Samuel Delasanta '24 Thomas Pentimonti '24	Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25 Judah Wong '24 Duncan Weiner '24
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Kai Ponting '23 Max Case '24 Sean Ross '25	Maura Darby '25 Peyton Nienaber '22 Corey Quillen '22

Conditions — 04/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 29% · Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

86°F

↑ 89°F ↓ 75°F

Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.7 kn

avg · max 7.3 kn

Gusts to 27.4 kn

From SW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity29% Pressure1014.1 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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