Stanford University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 (fleet 3.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–6 (91%) as crew 14–3 (82%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 40–6 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 4–0 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 16–0 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 14–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (83 matches) the record is 74–9 against 69.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.14 | 3.22 | 12–4 | 11.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2022-04-08 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.06 | 6.06 | 3–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 99% |
| 2022-02-26 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 3.23 | 19–2 | 19.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2022-02-19 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.14 | 6.14 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 99% |
| 2021-10-31 | Women's PCC Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.10 | 6.10 | 4–0 | 4.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 99% |
| 2020-02-22 | Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 5.95 | 16–0 | 13.6 | ≥+3.00 | 4.2 | 5% |
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | crew | 3.35 | 4.05 | 14–3 | 12.6 | +0.70 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.1 | 4.10 |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.9 | 4.42 |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 90% | — |
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 100% | — |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 4.24 |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.3 | 3.46 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's PCC Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Women's PCC Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 3.49 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 14 | 6.1 | 3.90 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.8 | 2.84 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 1.20 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.1 | 3.90 |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.5 | 3.28 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.7 | 2.86 |
| Phebe Corkran King Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 3.69 |
| PCCSC Women's Conference Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.8 | 3.40 |
| PCCSC Southern Area Designate | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 3.85 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.3 | 2.91 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.2 | 3.25 |
| 2019 Bryson Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 1.9 | 4.05 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.8 | 2.80 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.3 | 2.77 |
| All-State Sugar Bowl | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.6 | -3.30 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 3.56 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 3.44 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.2 | 2.70 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.7 | 2.88 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.2 | 1.95 |
| 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| 2018 Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.0 | 1.96 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.2 | 3.83 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.1 | 3.58 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 division | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.1 | 3.06 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.1 | 3.06 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Stephanie Houck |  Severn School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
