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Women's PCC Fleet Race Championship

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 6 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 20 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 [1-4]
Stephanie Houck '21 [5-10]
Patricia Gerli '23 [1-4]
Gwendolyn Donahue '24 [5-10]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal C 4 4 2 5 8 1 1 1 2 1 29 Hannah Freeman '24 [1-10]
Abigail Tindall '23 [1-4]
Sammy Pickell '22 [5-10]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 2 7 1 1 2 3 12 4 5 3 40 Berta Puig '24 [1-6]
Grace Austin '24 [7-9]
Anaclare Sole '23 [10]
Ashton Borcherding '22 [1-4]
Anaclare Sole '23 [5-9]
Grace Austin '24 [10]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 3 5 5 6 3 5 5 3 4 4 43 Mercy Tangredi '25
Kelsie Grant '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 7 6 9 3 5 10 3 9 10 5 67 Katherine Olsen '25
Rosie Ward '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows C 6 3 3 11 7 13 9 6 8 6 72 Hayden Lahr '22
Jemma Baird '22
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 13 12 7 7 6 6 4 5 7 8 75 Marianna Shand '24
Fadia Nitrosso '24
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 9 10 11 9 4 4 8 8 3 10 76 Morgan Carew '25
Sophia Shaeffer '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 11 2 4 4 11 11 11 12 6 7 79 Kingsley Ehrich '23
Lindsea Hayes '22
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 5 11 8 10 9 7 7 7 11 9 84 Molly Coghlin '25
Kaitlin Chan '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 12 9 10 8 10 8 10 10 12 12 101 Harriet Jessup '22
Kate Gallagher '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 10 8 12 DNF 12 9 6 11 9 11 104 Mary Jane Howland '22
Emma Worthington '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears C 8 13 14 12 14 12 13 13 DNF 14 129 Fiona Wu '25
Iesha Carter '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins C 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 135 Josephine Galvin '25
Siobhan Dornfried '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos C DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 160 Katelon Egan '24
Eliana Tucker '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears2222222222
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows5555555555
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1111111111
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins3333333333
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4444444444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears7777777777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows10101010101010101010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal6666666666
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins8888888888
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos9999999999

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears12121212121212121212
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows15151515151515151515
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal11111111111111111111
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins13131313131313131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos14141414141414141414

Conditions — 10/30/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From SW (228°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine5.9 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1014.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →