University of California at Berkeley '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 (fleet 1.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–60 (28%) as crew 9–17 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 1–5 | 5–6 |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 13–33 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 4–11 |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 7–20 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (109 matches) the record is 32–77 against 29.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | PCCSC Wahine Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.59 | 4.41 | 1–5 | 0.1 | +2.81 | 2.4 | 8% |
| 2025-02-08 | McIntyre Team Race | crew | 1.61 | 1.96 | 5–6 | 4.3 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2024-04-13 | Carter Ford Open PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.45 | 1.81 | 4–14 | 3.2 | +0.35 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 2024-03-17 | Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | skipper | 1.55 | 0.48 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −1.08 | 0.6 | 94% |
| 2024-03-16 | Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | skipper | 1.59 | -1.41 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.38 | 2.39 | 8–7 | 5.9 | +1.01 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2023-02-25 | McIntyre Team Race | crew | 1.46 | 2.15 | 4–11 | 3.0 | +0.70 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2022-02-26 | Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.65 | 1.30 | 2–13 | 2.5 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2022-02-19 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.59 | 2.08 | 3–3 | 2.5 | +0.49 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.49 | 1.17 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2021-10-31 | Women's PCC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.30 | 2.22 | 2–2 | 1.6 | +0.92 | 0.2 | 60% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.5 | 0.74 |
| PCCSC Wahine Team Race Champs Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| PCCSC Wahine Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.9 | 2.49 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 1.71 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 1.71 |
| PCCSC Women's Fall Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.1 | 1.41 |
| PCCSC Richard Sweet Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 4 | 13.2 | 0.07 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.8 | 1.50 |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Kiara Broudy Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.3 | 1.94 |
| (day 2) Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.0 | 0.14 |
| Carter Ford Open PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Bryson Women's (day 1) Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.9 | -2.13 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Women's Varsity Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 1.5 | 2.58 |
| (Day 1) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | -1.01 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Crew | A | 8 | 7.1 | — |
| (Day 2) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | -2.17 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.7 | 1.25 |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Jeff Simon Women's 2 Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 2.16 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 1 Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 0.71 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.9 | 1.82 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 1.32 |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.5 | 1.81 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's PCC Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 4 | 50% | — |
| Women's PCC Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | -0.69 |
| UCSD Frosh Soph | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 2.62 |
| Fall PCC - Women’s Div Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.3 | 2.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
