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Charleston Spring

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 39 16 55
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 29 40 69
3 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 45 30 75
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 35 53 88
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 51 45 96
6 College of Charleston College of Charleston Lady Cougars 57 42 99
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 50 63 113
8 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 63 54 117
9 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 53 71 124
10 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 73 54 127
11 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 48 81 129
12 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 86 78 164
13 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 101 101 202
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 6 3 4 2 7 2 1 4 29 Scott Harris '22
Olivia Sowa '24
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1 2 DSQ 4 3 3 7 35 Andrew Ciszewski '25
Katherine Barton '23
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 2 5 1 4 1 11 6 9 39 Taylor Hasson '23
Adrianna Lee '22
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 3 2 7 8 9 6 4 6 45 Mateo Rodriguez '22
Kristen Cooper '25
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 8 9 3 5 6 4 2 11 48 Stewart Gurnell '23
Kennedy Jones '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 10 6 9 7 3 9 5 1 50 Will Cornell '25 [1-8]
Lindsea Hayes '22 [1-4]
Beck Boyea '24 [5-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 12 7 6 1 8 1 11 5 51 Sherman Thompson '22 [1-6]
Emily Pytell '25 [7-8]
Lily Allen '23 [1-6]
Caroline Grin '25 [7-8]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7 4 DSQ 6 5 5 10 2 53 Zachariah Schemel '25
Aine-Maire Porter '25
College of Charleston College of Charleston Lady Cougars 5 8 5 3 10 8 8 10 57 Emma Tallman '25
Sophia Browne '25
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 11 12 12 9 2 7 7 3 63 Brian Fox '23
Liam Orr '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 73 Peter Mcgonagle '25
Daniel Neville '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 9 11 8 10 12 12 12 12 86 Aden Anderson '25
Ella Deschamps '25
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 13 13 11 12 13 13 13 13 101 Jason Elliott '25 [1-8]
Nathan Henderson '25 [1-4]
Butterfly Brooks '25 [5-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 1 5 2 1 1 4 1 16 Charles Mckenzie '25
Grace Beard '25
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 5 3 4 4 7 2 3 2 30 Joey Meagher '24
Katie Nelson '24
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 6 9 2 1 6 4 6 6 40 Hogan O'Donnell '21
Isabella Du Plessis '24
College of Charleston College of Charleston Lady Cougars 9 4 6 7 3 3 5 5 42 Emily Alfortish '25
Nina Lubchenco '25
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 4 2 7 5 2 9 7 9 45 Joe Serpa '24
Abigail Paul '25
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 12 3 3 8 6 11 7 53 Elizabeth Gildea '24 [1-6]
Megan Geith '24 [7-8]
Tyler Bissell '24 [1-6]
Alivia Markham '23 [7-8]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7 8 1 10 5 5 10 8 54 Celia Houston '25 [1-4]
Jack Derry '25 [5-8]
Sydney Motherway '24 [1-4]
Charlotte Mccarthy '25 [5-8]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 8 5 9 6 11 11 1 3 54 Luke Hayes '22
Julia Burns '22
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 6 10 8 9 8 8 12 63 Katherine Olsen '25 [1-8]
Mackenzie Berwick '22 [1-4]
Marlena Tavernier-Fine '22 [5-8]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 10 7 8 13 4 10 9 10 71 Chloe Sweeting '22
Lily Theisen '23
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 13 11 12 12 12 12 2 4 78 Patrick Barney '25
Piper Desantis '23
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 11 10 11 9 10 7 12 11 81 Max Shapiro '25
Emma Macturk '23
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 12 13 13 11 13 13 13 13 101 Madeleine Adams '22 [1-6]
Emily Gaskins '25 [7-8]
Emily Gaskins '25 [1-4]
Hannah Braden '24 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears1010111112121313
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars223314141515
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Lady Cougars331414151566
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains1122331414
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears99101011111212
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles141415156677
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins151566771818
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines11111212131311
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack6677181899
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs771818991010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls121213131122
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies18189910101111
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1313112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears1010111112121313
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars223314141515
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Lady Cougars331414151566
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains1122331414
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears99101011111212
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles141415156677
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins151566771818
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines11111212131311
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack6677181899
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs771818991010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls121213131122
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies18189910101111
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1313112233
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Brian Fox '23 Liam Orr '22
Captains Luke Hayes '22 Julia Burns '22
College of Charleston College of Charleston Taylor Hasson '23 Adrianna Lee '22
Cougars Charles Mckenzie '25 Grace Beard '25
College of Charleston College of Charleston Emma Tallman '25 Sophia Browne '25
Lady Cougars Emily Alfortish '25 Nina Lubchenco '25
Florida State University Florida State University Mateo Rodriguez '22 Kristen Cooper '25
Seminoles Joey Meagher '24 Katie Nelson '24
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Aden Anderson '25 Ella Deschamps '25
Fins Patrick Barney '25 Piper Desantis '23
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Scott Harris '22 Olivia Sowa '24
Wolfpack Hogan O'Donnell '21 Isabella Du Plessis '24
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Andrew Ciszewski '25 Katherine Barton '23
Monarchs Elizabeth Gildea '24 [1-6]
Megan Geith '24 [7-8]		 Tyler Bissell '24 [1-6]
Alivia Markham '23 [7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Jason Elliott '25 [1-8] Nathan Henderson '25 [1-4]
Butterfly Brooks '25 [5-8]
Aggies Madeleine Adams '22 [1-6]
Emily Gaskins '25 [7-8]		 Emily Gaskins '25 [1-4]
Hannah Braden '24 [5-8]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Peter Mcgonagle '25 Daniel Neville '25
Bears Celia Houston '25 [1-4]
Jack Derry '25 [5-8]		 Sydney Motherway '24 [1-4]
Charlotte Mccarthy '25 [5-8]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Will Cornell '25 [1-8] Lindsea Hayes '22 [1-4]
Beck Boyea '24 [5-8]
Bears Katherine Olsen '25 [1-8] Mackenzie Berwick '22 [1-4]
Marlena Tavernier-Fine '22 [5-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Sherman Thompson '22 [1-6]
Emily Pytell '25 [7-8]		 Lily Allen '23 [1-6]
Caroline Grin '25 [7-8]
Wolverines Joe Serpa '24 Abigail Paul '25
University of South Florida University of South Florida Zachariah Schemel '25 Aine-Maire Porter '25
Bulls Chloe Sweeting '22 Lily Theisen '23
Washington College Washington College Stewart Gurnell '23 Kennedy Jones '24
Shoremen Max Shapiro '25 Emma Macturk '23

Conditions — 03/12/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1004.8 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
20.4 kn
avg  ·  max 23.8 kn
Gusts to 45.5 kn
From W (271°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1004.8 hPa Rain0.90 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 20 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Charleston: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →