College of Charleston '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 (fleet 3.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–6 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 7–6 against 5.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-19 | Nelson Roltsch | skipper | 2.46 | 3.43 | 6–3 | 4.8 | +0.97 | 0.9 | 26% |
| 2021-03-27 | Navy Spring Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 3.59 | 1–3 | 0.4 | +1.22 | 0.6 | 33% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 3.39 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Navy Spring Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.2 | 1.40 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Taylor Hasson |  Good Hope County Day School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
