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Navy Spring Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 54
2 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 68
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 83
4 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 2 93
5 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 95
6 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 101
7 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 3 111
8 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 118
9 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 132
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 B 1 7 5 1 3 17 Jc Hermus '22
Kimmie Leonard '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 A 3 1 4 3 10 21 Gray Benson '22
Madeline Pruzan '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women A 5 2 11 2 4 24 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22
Grace Siwicki '22
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 A 8 11 2 5 5 31 Jack Brown '21
Noelle Owen '23
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 17 3 1 9 6 36 Cameron Giblin '23
Lydia Brown '23
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 A 11 8 7 4 7 37 Connor Bayless '21
Fiona Lobon '22
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 B 2 9 3 7 16 37 Paris Henken '22
Lucy Klempen '24
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 2 B 13 4 10 10 1 38 Marian Frances Williams '21
Roxanne Snyder '23
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 B 16 12 9 11 2 50 Trenton Shaw '24 [1-3]
Caden Scheiblauer '23 [4-5]
Sean Linden '21 [1-3]
Madeline Smith '24 [4-5]
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 2 A 10 13 12 12 8 55 Pierce Ornstein '22 [1-3]
Hunter Skinner '20 [4-5]
Anna Sherry '23 [1-3]
Hannah Kinder '21 [4-5]
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 3 B 4 10 16 14 11 55 Max Anker '24
Peter Barron '21
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 3 A 15 6 6 17 12 56 Taylor Hasson '23
Chloe Hudgins '24
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave A 6 5 18 13 15 57 Caroline Benson '23 [1-2]
Thad Lettsome '24 [3-5]
Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 [1-2]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 B 12 18 13 6 13 62 Olivia De Olazarra '22
Jonah Hatt '23
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 14 14 15 8 14 65 Marcus Huttunen '24
Gillian Perrell '24
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 A 18 15 8 18 9 68 Carlyn Blauvelt '23
Colin Macgillivray '23
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women B 9 16 14 15 17 71 Mia Hanes '24
Abigail Borggaard '24
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave B 7 17 17 16 18 75 William Keenan '23
Katherine Cartiglia '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars 199999
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars 288888
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars 31212121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11313131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 21616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 31717171717
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave33333
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave22222
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women44444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars 177777
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars 21111111111
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars 31010101010
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11515151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 21414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 31818181818
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave66666
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave11111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women55555

Conditions — 03/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From SSE (165°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1021.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 12 kn · S 14 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Navy: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.16 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.41 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →