College of Charleston '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.04 (fleet 4.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–10 (72%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 4 | 26–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 26–10 against 24.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-02 | 2021 College Sailing Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.19 | 4.67 | 5–2 | 3.3 | +1.49 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 2021-04-17 | SAISA Team Race Championships 2021 | skipper | 3.20 | 2.75 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 2021-03-27 | Navy Spring Team Race | skipper | 3.17 | 2.44 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2021-03-20 | Charleston Spring Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 3.43 | 13–2 | 12.1 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Women's Conference Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.4 | 3.43 |
| SAISA Team Race Championships 2021 | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| SAISA North Points #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.3 | 4.39 |
| SAISA Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 4.31 |
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.8 | 3.96 |
| Navy Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Navy Spring Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 2.90 |
| 2021 Gill College Sailing Coed Nationals | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.9 | 4.33 |
| Charleston Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| 2021 College Sailing Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 19 | 68% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.1 | 3.84 |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 4.35 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 3.99 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.7 | 4.37 |
| SAISA Women's Conference Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.1 | 3.61 |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.6 | 4.18 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.8 | 4.14 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.4 | 3.65 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.8 | 3.00 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 4.18 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.5 | 3.14 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 3.63 |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 3.0 | 4.79 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.0 | 4.00 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 3.77 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.1 | 3.87 |
| SAISA Women's Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 3.29 |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.7 | 3.79 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.5 | 2.66 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.6 | 3.33 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.0 | 3.86 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 3.86 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 3.18 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.7 | 3.60 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.8 | 3.60 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.0 | 3.32 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.3 | 2.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
