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2021 College Sailing Team Race Nationals

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 17–2
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 14–5
3 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 13–6
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 10–9
5 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 8–8
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 7–9
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8–8
8 Boston College Boston College Eagles 7–9
8 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 7–9
10 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 0–0
11 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4–12
12 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,751 team race matches sailed before 2021-06-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 23 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.464 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 85% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		111.08
school +0.37		Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.68
Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.44
Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 3.59		86%6–1 (86%)−0.0
3College of Charleston
Cougars		59.65
school +0.41		Jack Brown / Noelle Owen 3.52
Paris Henken / Lucy Klempen 3.19
Hunter Skinner / Roxanne Snyder 2.67 4–0
Pierce Ornstein / Roxanne Snyder 2.29 1–2		47%5–2 (71%)+1.7
7Tufts University
Jumbos		29.36
school +0.17		Charlie Hibben / Celia Byrne 2.96
Alex Fasolo / Juliana Testa 3.06
Samuel Merson / Ann Sheridan 3.18 4–1
Austen Freda / Lindsay Powers 3.09 1–2		53%5–3 (62%)+0.8
8Tulane University
Green Wave		39.30
school −0.08		Marcus Huttunen / Gillian Perrell 3.07
Cameron Giblin / Lydia Brown 3.49
Thad Lettsome / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.81		52%4–4 (50%)−0.1
11St. Mary's College of Maryland
Seahawks		49.13
school +0.23		Keiran James Golden / Ellie Sekowski 2.65
Gloria Kevliciute / Madison Bashaw 2.70
Lewis Cooper / Sophia Taczak 3.54		47%2–6 (25%)−1.8
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy
Mariners		68.04
school −0.05		Carrson Pearce / Ellary Boyd 3.41
John Mckenna / Kieran Cullen
Luke Welker / Marshall Cho 2.24		20%1–7 (12%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3College of Charleston9.6511.135–23.3+1.491.812%
7Tufts University9.369.825–34.2+0.470.342%
2Roger Williams University11.0811.026–16.1−0.060.076%
8Tulane University9.309.234–44.1−0.070.068%
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy8.047.491–71.6−0.550.283%
11St. Mary's College of Maryland9.138.012–63.8−1.131.496%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jack BrownCollege of Charleston3.525.005–23.3+1.491.812%
Paris HenkenCollege of Charleston3.194.675–23.3+1.491.812%
Charlie HibbenTufts University2.963.435–34.2+0.470.342%
Alex FasoloTufts University3.063.535–34.2+0.470.342%
Spencer CartwrightRoger Williams University3.683.616–16.1−0.060.076%
Aidan HooglandRoger Williams University3.443.376–16.1−0.060.076%
Carrson PearceU. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.412.861–71.6−0.550.283%
John MckennaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.231.681–71.6−0.550.283%
Austen FredaTufts University3.092.441–21.5−0.650.287%
Keiran James GoldenSt. Mary's College of Maryland2.651.522–63.8−1.131.496%
Lewis CooperSt. Mary's College of Maryland3.542.412–63.8−1.131.496%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Roger Williams UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy96%
12Tulane UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland54%
13College of CharlestonTufts University62%
17Tulane UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy80%
18Roger Williams UniversityCollege of Charleston84%
19St. Mary's College of MarylandTufts University46%upset
113College of CharlestonU. S. Merchant Marine Academy86%
114Tufts UniversityTulane University52%
115Roger Williams UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland88%
119College of CharlestonTulane University62%
120Roger Williams UniversityTufts University84%
121St. Mary's College of MarylandU. S. Merchant Marine Academy75%
125Roger Williams UniversityTulane University86%
126College of CharlestonSt. Mary's College of Maryland66%
127Tufts UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy79%
497College of CharlestonRoger Williams University16%upset
672Tufts UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy78%
678Tufts UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland54%
682Tulane UniversityU. S. Merchant Marine Academy76%
687Roger Williams UniversityCollege of Charleston84%
690Tulane UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland54%
695U. S. Merchant Marine AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland27%upset
696Tufts UniversityTulane University52%

Round 1

TeamRec.MidshipmenHawksCougarsHoyasCardinalBearsJumbosEaglesWaveFinsSeahawksMariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen10–1✕WWWLWWWWWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks8–3L✕WLLWWWWWWW
College of Charleston Cougars8–3LL✕WLWWWWWWW
Georgetown University Hoyas8–3LWL✕WWWWWLWW
Stanford University Cardinal7–4WWWL✕LLWLWWW
Brown University Bears7–4LLLLW✕WWWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos3–8LLLLWL✕LWLLW
Boston College Eagles4–7LLLLLLW✕LWWW
Tulane University Green Wave5–6LLLLWLLW✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–8LLLWLLWLL✕LW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks3–8LLLLLLWLLW✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–11LLLLLLLLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.MidshipmenHawksCougarsHoyas
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen2–1✕LWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–1W✕LW
College of Charleston Cougars2–1LW✕W
Georgetown University Hoyas0–3LLL✕

Round 6

TeamRec.MidshipmenHawksCougarsHoyasCardinalBearsJumbosEaglesWaveFinsSeahawksMariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen5–0✕WWWWW––––––
Roger Williams University Hawks4–1L✕WWWW––––––
College of Charleston Cougars3–2LL✕WWW––––––
Georgetown University Hoyas2–3LLL✕WW––––––
Stanford University Cardinal1–4LLLL✕W––––––
Brown University Bears0–5LLLLL✕––––––
Tufts University Jumbos5–0––––––✕WWWWW
Boston College Eagles3–2––––––L✕WWLW
Tulane University Green Wave2–3––––––LL✕LWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–3––––––LLW✕WL
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1–4––––––LWLL✕L
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners2–3––––––LLLWW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
2 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-5-6
3 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
4 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
5 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
6 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2-5-6
7 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-5-6
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
10 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Stanford University Cardinal 4-5-6
12 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
13 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Tulane University Green Wave 4-5-6
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
17 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
19 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
20 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
21 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-5-6
22 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-5-6
23 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
24 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
25 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Tulane University Green Wave 4-5-6
26 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-5
27 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
28 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
29 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
30 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-5-6
31 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
32 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
33 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
34 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4-5-6
35 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
36 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
37 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
38 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
39 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
40 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
41 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4-5-6
42 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-4-6
43 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
44 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
45 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-5
46 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
47 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
48 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-5-6
49 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
50 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
51 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
52 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
53 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
54 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-5-6
55 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
56 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-6
57 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
58 Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 DSQ
59 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
60 Boston College Eagles 1-3-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-4-5
61 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
62 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-5-6
63 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
64 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-4-6
65 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
66 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-4-5
97 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
98 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 4-5-6
99 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 2-4-6
100 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-4-5
101 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-5-6
102 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-4-6
67 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 4-5-6
68 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-5
69 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
70 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
71 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
72 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-5-6
73 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
74 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-4-6
75 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
76 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-5-6
77 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
78 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-3-6
79 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 1-5-6
80 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
81 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 2-4-6
82 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-5-6
83 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
84 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
85 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-5-6
86 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
87 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
88 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
89 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
90 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-5-6
91 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-4-6
92 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 3-4-6
93 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
94 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
95 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-2-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-5
96 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 1-5-6

Conditions — 06/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine7.7 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1022.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →