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Charleston Spring Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 13–2
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 10–5
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 8–7
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 8–7
5 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 2 3–12
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 3–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,346 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 45 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.518 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 75% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1College of Charleston
Cougars 1		19.71
school +0.46		Jack Brown / Jack Sutton 3.57
Paris Henken / Hunter Skinner 10–2
Malcolm Benn Smith / Peter Barron 8–1
Malcolm Benn Smith / Noelle Owen 2–1
Hunter Skinner / Noelle Owen 2.40 3–0
Paris Henken / Hannah Kinder 3–0		81%13–2 (87%)+0.9
2Tulane University
Green Wave		29.24Marcus Huttunen / Gillian Perrell 3.05
Cameron Giblin / Lydia Brown 3.34
Thad Lettsome / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.76		68%10–5 (67%)−0.2
3Jacksonville University
Fins		38.54
school +0.18		Andre Guaragna / Mia Porter 2.86
Charlotte Rose / Lucien Parker 2.82
Gordon Gurnell / Josh Becker 2.64		50%8–7 (53%)+0.5
4Old Dominion University
Monarchs		48.11
school +0.21		Bridget Groble / Abigail Tutt 3.07
Parker Purrington / Katherine Barton 2.66
Hannah Pokorny / Emily Harrison 2.12		37%8–7 (53%)+2.4
5College of Charleston
Cougars 2		67.72
school +0.46		Marian Frances Williams / Roxanne Snyder 2.79
Kelly-Ann Arrindell / Cara Samson 3–9
Kiera Oreardon / Anna Sherry 2–7
Kiera Oreardon / Julia Jeffries 1–5
Grace Squires / Cara Samson 0–3		32%3–12 (20%)−1.8
6University of South Florida
Bulls Women		57.89
school +0.26		Marina Barzaghi / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.81
Kathryn Bornarth / Samantha Kappaz 2.75 1–8
Sydney Monahan / Lily Theisen 2.09 1–8
Kathryn Bornarth / Lily Theisen 2.67 2–4
Sydney Monahan / Olivia Smith 2.05 2–4		32%3–12 (20%)−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Old Dominion University Monarchs8.118.858–75.6+0.741.314%
1College of Charleston Cougars 19.7110.2013–212.1+0.480.341%
3Jacksonville University Fins8.548.708–77.5+0.170.149%
2Tulane University Green Wave9.249.1610–510.2−0.080.068%
6University of South Florida Bulls Women7.897.193–124.8−0.700.992%
5College of Charleston Cougars 27.727.013–124.8−0.710.992%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Hannah PokornyOld Dominion University2.122.868–75.6+0.741.314%
Jack BrownCollege of Charleston3.574.0513–212.1+0.480.341%
Paris HenkenCollege of Charleston2.953.4313–212.1+0.480.341%
Malcolm Benn SmithCollege of Charleston2.392.8010–29.3+0.410.246%
Andre GuaragnaJacksonville University2.863.028–77.5+0.170.149%
Charlotte RoseJacksonville University2.822.998–77.5+0.170.149%
Kelly-Ann ArrindellCollege of Charleston2.461.793–94.6−0.670.891%
Marian Frances WilliamsCollege of Charleston2.792.083–124.8−0.710.992%
Kiera OreardonCollege of Charleston1.941.233–124.8−0.710.992%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Jacksonville University FinsOld Dominion University Monarchs61%
12Tulane University Green WaveCollege of Charleston Cougars 283%
13College of Charleston Cougars 1University of South Florida Bulls Women81%
14College of Charleston Cougars 2Jacksonville University Fins31%upset
15Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women54%
16Tulane University Green WaveCollege of Charleston Cougars 142%upset
17University of South Florida Bulls WomenCollege of Charleston Cougars 252%
18Jacksonville University FinsTulane University Green Wave34%upset
19College of Charleston Cougars 1Old Dominion University Monarchs82%
110Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women81%
111Old Dominion University MonarchsCollege of Charleston Cougars 255%
112College of Charleston Cougars 1Jacksonville University Fins76%
113Tulane University Green WaveOld Dominion University Monarchs75%
114Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women68%
115College of Charleston Cougars 1College of Charleston Cougars 295%
216Jacksonville University FinsOld Dominion University Monarchs61%
217Tulane University Green WaveCollege of Charleston Cougars 279%
218College of Charleston Cougars 1University of South Florida Bulls Women86%
219Jacksonville University FinsCollege of Charleston Cougars 264%
220Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women54%
221College of Charleston Cougars 1Tulane University Green Wave63%
222College of Charleston Cougars 2University of South Florida Bulls Women52%
223Tulane University Green WaveJacksonville University Fins67%
224College of Charleston Cougars 1Old Dominion University Monarchs84%
225University of South Florida Bulls WomenTulane University Green Wave19%upset
226Old Dominion University MonarchsCollege of Charleston Cougars 252%
227Jacksonville University FinsCollege of Charleston Cougars 122%upset
228Old Dominion University MonarchsTulane University Green Wave24%upset
229University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Fins32%upset
230College of Charleston Cougars 1College of Charleston Cougars 294%
331Old Dominion University MonarchsJacksonville University Fins39%upset
332Tulane University Green WaveCollege of Charleston Cougars 277%
333College of Charleston Cougars 1University of South Florida Bulls Women87%
334Jacksonville University FinsCollege of Charleston Cougars 262%
335Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women54%
336College of Charleston Cougars 1Tulane University Green Wave65%
337College of Charleston Cougars 2University of South Florida Bulls Women54%
338Tulane University Green WaveJacksonville University Fins67%
339College of Charleston Cougars 1Old Dominion University Monarchs86%
340Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women81%
341Old Dominion University MonarchsCollege of Charleston Cougars 250%upset
342College of Charleston Cougars 1Jacksonville University Fins79%
343Tulane University Green WaveOld Dominion University Monarchs76%
344Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women68%
345College of Charleston Cougars 1College of Charleston Cougars 294%

Round 1

TeamRec.1WaveFinsMonarchs2Women
College of Charleston Cougars 15–5✕LWL✕L
Tulane University Green Wave4–1W✕LWWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LW✕WLW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–3WLL✕WW
College of Charleston Cougars 25–5✕LWL✕L
University of South Florida Bulls Women1–4WLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1WaveFinsMonarchs2Women
College of Charleston Cougars 15–5✕WLL✕W
Tulane University Green Wave2–3L✕WLLL
Jacksonville University Fins3–2WL✕WWL
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–2WWL✕WW
College of Charleston Cougars 25–5✕WLL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls Women2–3LWWLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.1WaveFinsMonarchs2Women
College of Charleston Cougars 16–4✕WWL✕W
Tulane University Green Wave4–1L✕WWLW
Jacksonville University Fins2–3LL✕LLW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–2WLW✕WW
College of Charleston Cougars 26–4✕WWL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls Women0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
2 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 3-4-6
3 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 4-5-6
4 College of Charleston Cougars 2 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
5 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-5-6
6 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1 2-5-6
7 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-4-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 2-3-6
8 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
9 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
10 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-4-6
11 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 3-4-5
12 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
13 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-6
14 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-5
15 College of Charleston Cougars 1 2-3-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 1-4-6
16 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
17 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 3-4-6
18 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-5-6
19 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 1-5-6
20 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-4-6
21 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
22 College of Charleston Cougars 2 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-4-6
23 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
24 College of Charleston Cougars 1 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
25 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
26 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 2-3-6
27 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1 2-5-6
28 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
29 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
30 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 4-5-6
31 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
32 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 3-5-6
33 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-5-6
34 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 4-5-6
35 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-4-6
36 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5
37 College of Charleston Cougars 2 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
38 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
39 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-6
40 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-5-6
41 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 4-5-6
42 College of Charleston Cougars 1 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
43 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-6
44 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-4-5
45 College of Charleston Cougars 1 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/20/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1027.3 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From NNE (29°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1027.3 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →