| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls Women | 3–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 1–6 |
| 5 |  |
Georgia Institute of Technology | Yellow Jackets | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,587 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 10 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.281 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.46 ± 0.68: a typical event, more orderly than 90% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville University Fins | 2 | 9.55 school +0.17 | Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Logan Brickhouse 3.39 Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 2.95 Telmo Basterra / Mia Porter 3.03 | 67% | 5–1 (83%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 9.79 school +0.42 | Jack Brown / Noelle Owen 3.46 Hunter Skinner / Roxanne Snyder 2.69 Paris Henken / Lucy Klempen 3.20 | 74% | 4–2 (67%) | −0.5 |
| 3 | University of South Florida Bulls Women | 3 | 7.79 school +0.23 | Kathryn Bornarth / Samantha Kappaz 2.71 Marina Barzaghi / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.78 Sydney Monahan / Olivia Smith 2.07 | 31% | 1–4 (20%) | −0.5 |
| 5 | Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets | 4 | 3.01 | Cole Woerner / Michael Bick Maggie Royal / Roberto Martelli Theodore Goldenberg / Lily Vigtel | 0% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville University | 9.55 | 10.66 | 5–1 | 4.0 | +1.11 | 0.8 | 32% |
| 2 | College of Charleston | 9.79 | 9.34 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 3 | University of South Florida | 7.79 | 5.63 | 1–4 | 1.5 | −2.16 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 5 | Georgia Institute of Technology | 3.01 | 0.01 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | Jacksonville University | 3.39 | 4.50 | 5–1 | 4.0 | +1.11 | 0.8 | 32% |
| Andre Guaragna | Jacksonville University | 2.95 | 4.06 | 5–1 | 4.0 | +1.11 | 0.8 | 32% |
| Jack Brown | College of Charleston | 3.46 | 3.01 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Paris Henken | College of Charleston | 3.20 | 2.75 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Maggie Royal | Georgia Institute of Technology | 0.95 | -2.05 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Theodore Goldenberg | Georgia Institute of Technology | 0.84 | -2.16 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Cougars | Women | Hurricanes | Jackets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls Women | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Cougars | Women | Hurricanes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls Women | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow Jackets | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Yellow Jackets | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow Jackets | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yellow Jackets | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Telmo Basterra '21 |
Logan Brickhouse '21 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Mia Porter '22 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Hunter Skinner '20 Jack Brown '21 Paris Henken '22 |
Roxanne Snyder '23 Noelle Owen '23 Lucy Klempen '24 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls Women | Kathryn Bornarth '21 Marina Barzaghi '21 Sydney Monahan '23 |
Samantha Kappaz '21 Carolina Perez Rovira '22 Olivia Smith '23 |
|
Georgia Institute of Technology | Yellow Jackets | Cole Woerner '22 Maggie Royal '20 Theodore Goldenberg '23 |
Michael Bick '20 Roberto Martelli '24 Lily Vigtel '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
