Navigate

Nelson Roltsch

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 12–3
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11–4
3 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 9–6
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 8–7
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 4–11
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,936 team race matches sailed before 2022-02-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.456 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.00 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave		110.02
school −0.09, home +0.36		Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.54
Marcus Huttunen / Grace Siwicki 3.26
Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.91		87%12–3 (80%)−1.0
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		29.19
school −0.15		Sidney Gathrid / Julia Roudebush 2.93
David Eastwood / Sydney Aguirre 3.31 7–2
Chris Kayda / Kyla Murphy 3.07 7–2
David Eastwood / Tristan Richmond 3.34 4–2
Chris Kayda / Joseph Politi 3.04 4–2		70%11–4 (73%)+0.5
3College of Charleston
Cougars		38.23
school +0.41		Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen
Pierce Ornstein / Anna Sherry 2.35
Taylor Hasson / Adrianna Lee 2.46 6–3
Max Anker / Adrianna Lee 2.92 3–3		51%9–6 (60%)+1.4
4University of Wisconsin
Badgers		48.05
school −0.26		Jonathan Bailey / Cristina Dombrowski 2.66
Samuel Bartel / Ellie Murphy 2.83
Christian Spencer / Allison Hansen 2.71		44%8–7 (53%)+1.3
5Jacksonville University
Fins		57.81
school +0.15		Gordon Gurnell / Mia Porter 2.83
Brent Penwarden / Mary Mann 2–10
Matthew King / Sara Flowerday 2.82 2–10
Brent Penwarden / Lucien Parker 2–1
Matthew King / Mary Mann 2.81 2–1		41%4–11 (27%)−2.2
6University of South Florida
Bulls		65.79
school +0.19		Chloe Sweeting / Hannah Marsicano
Andreas Keswater / Emmy Digiacomo
Zachariah Schemel / Aine-Maire Porter		7%1–14 (7%)−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3College of Charleston8.238.769–67.6+0.530.529%
4University of Wisconsin8.058.568–76.6+0.510.529%
2University of California at Santa Barbara9.199.4111–410.5+0.220.151%
6University of South Florida5.795.741–141.0−0.050.067%
1Tulane University10.029.4812–313.0−0.540.488%
5Jacksonville University7.816.834–116.2−0.991.596%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Axel StordahlCollege of Charleston2.783.319–67.6+0.530.529%
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.933.1411–410.5+0.220.151%
Andreas KeswaterUniversity of South Florida1.571.521–141.0−0.050.067%
Zachariah SchemelUniversity of South Florida2.011.961–141.0−0.050.067%
Asher ZittrerTulane University2.912.3712–313.0−0.540.488%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida92%
12Tulane UniversityCollege of Charleston88%
13University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Wisconsin77%
14College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida92%
15Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin44%upset
16University of California at Santa BarbaraTulane University30%upset
17University of WisconsinUniversity of South Florida92%
18College of CharlestonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara33%upset
19Tulane UniversityJacksonville University90%
110University of WisconsinCollege of Charleston39%upset
111University of California at Santa BarbaraJacksonville University80%
112Tulane UniversityUniversity of South Florida99%
113Jacksonville UniversityCollege of Charleston44%upset
114Tulane UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin88%
115University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of South Florida97%
216University of South FloridaJacksonville University12%upset
217College of CharlestonTulane University12%upset
218University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Wisconsin76%
219College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida90%
220University of WisconsinJacksonville University56%
221University of California at Santa BarbaraTulane University30%upset
222University of WisconsinUniversity of South Florida90%
223University of California at Santa BarbaraCollege of Charleston67%
224Tulane UniversityJacksonville University90%
225College of CharlestonUniversity of Wisconsin61%
226University of California at Santa BarbaraJacksonville University80%
227Tulane UniversityUniversity of South Florida98%
228College of CharlestonJacksonville University56%
229Tulane UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin88%
230University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of South Florida96%
331Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida87%
332Tulane UniversityCollege of Charleston88%
333University of WisconsinUniversity of California at Santa Barbara24%upset
334College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida89%
335University of WisconsinJacksonville University56%
336Tulane UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara70%
337University of WisconsinUniversity of South Florida89%
338College of CharlestonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara33%upset
339Tulane UniversityJacksonville University90%
340University of WisconsinCollege of Charleston40%upset
341University of California at Santa BarbaraJacksonville University79%
342Tulane UniversityUniversity of South Florida98%
343College of CharlestonJacksonville University55%
344Tulane UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin87%
345University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of South Florida96%

Round 1

TeamRec.WaveGauchosCougarsBadgersFinsBulls
Tulane University Green Wave4–1✕LWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4–1W✕LWWW
College of Charleston Cougars2–3LW✕LLW
University of Wisconsin Badgers2–3LLW✕LW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LLWW✕W
University of South Florida Bulls0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WaveGauchosCougarsBadgersFinsBulls
Tulane University Green Wave3–2✕LLWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5–0W✕WWWW
College of Charleston Cougars4–1WL✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers2–3LLL✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins0–5LLLL✕L
University of South Florida Bulls1–4LLLLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WaveGauchosCougarsBadgersFinsBulls
Tulane University Green Wave5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–3L✕LLWW
College of Charleston Cougars3–2LW✕LWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers4–1LWW✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins1–4LLLL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
2 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1-5-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-4-6
4 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
5 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-5-6
6 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
7 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
8 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-5-6
9 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
12 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
13 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
15 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
16 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
17 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2-4-5
18 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
19 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
21 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 1-5-6
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-5
24 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
25 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
26 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
27 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
28 College of Charleston Cougars 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-6
29 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
30 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
31 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
32 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
33 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-6
34 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
35 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
36 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6
37 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
38 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
39 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
40 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-5-6
41 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
42 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
43 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-5
44 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
45 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5

Conditions — 02/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1028.9 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover42% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1028.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →