College of Charleston '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.54 (fleet 3.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–10 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 14–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 14–10 against 11.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-25 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 2.51 | 6–6 | 6.4 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2023-03-11 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 3.46 | 8–4 | 5.5 | +1.14 | 2.0 | 9% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Spring Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 3.63 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Top 6 Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 1.23 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| UNCW Trophy Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 3.28 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.4 | 3.73 |
| SAISA North Points #2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 3.29 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.0 | 4.65 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #3 | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 3.95 |
| SAISA Coed Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.0 | 2.90 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
