Bob Bavier Open Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/11/2023
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	16–3
2	Tulane University	Green Wave	14–5
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–7
4	University of Miami	Hurricanes	10–9
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	9–7
6	Florida State University	Seminoles	6–10
7	University of South Florida	Bulls	5–11
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	4–12
9	University of Vermont	Catamounts	2–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,442 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 78 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.551 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 28% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1	9.67 school −0.07	Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.31 Colman Schofield / Lauren O'Neill 3.46 13–2 Nicholas Reeser / Charles Pohl 2.94 10–2 Matthew Kickhafer / Charles Pohl 2.98 6–1 Colman Schofield / Charles Mason 3.38 3–1	77%	16–3 (84%)	+1.3
2	Tulane University Green Wave	2	9.56	Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.55 Thad Lettsome / Alex Makoid 3.03 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.97 12–5 Peter Foley Iii / Gillian Perrell 2.76 2–0	75%	14–5 (74%)	−0.3
3	Stanford University Cardinal	3	8.77 school +0.43	Chapman Petersen / Anaclare Sole 3.42 Justin Lim / Patricia Gerli 3.25 Jack Baldwin / Gwendolyn Donahue 1.63	57%	12–7 (63%)	+1.1
4	University of Miami Hurricanes	5	8.75 school +0.17	Aidan Dennis / Dominic Canonico 2.87 Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.04 Steven Hardee / Teddy Bueres 2.65 4–6 Steven Hardee / James Nappo 2.65 3–2 Richard Mccann / James Nappo 2.56 3–1	56%	10–9 (53%)	−0.6
5	College of Charleston Cougars	6	8.29 school +0.51	Jack Howard / Brylie Schaubach 2.70 Lawson Levine / Nina Lubchenco 8–4 Charles Mckenzie / Chloe Hudgins 8–4 Alexander Gonzalez / Kaili Yap 1–3 Benjamin Dufour / Chloe Hudgins 1–3	51%	9–7 (56%)	+0.8
6	Florida State University Seminoles	7	7.14 school −0.21	Mateo Rodriguez / Brady Parks 2.74 Joey Meagher / Olivia Hanley 2.51 Katie Nelson / Niah Ford 2.01	26%	6–10 (38%)	+1.8
7	University of South Florida Bulls	8	6.82	Andreas Keswater / Melissa Janes 2.15 Humberto Porrata / Emmy Digiacomo 2.19 Zachariah Schemel / Brilan Christopher 2.46	22%	5–11 (31%)	+1.5
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	8.53 school +0.44	Caden Scheiblauer / Darby Graham 2.52 Tanner Kelly / Catherine Aitken 2.61 Eva Blauvelt / Julia Christie 2.89	56%	4–12 (25%)	−5.0
9	University of Vermont Catamounts	9	6.54 school −0.11	Connell Phillipps / Maddy Saffer 2.67 Ryan Hamilton / Will Broseman 1.96 Ryan Potter / Alex Forrest 1.96	17%	2–14 (12%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Florida State University	7.14	7.82	6–10	4.2	+0.67	0.9	20%
7	University of South Florida	6.82	7.44	5–11	3.5	+0.61	0.7	23%
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.67	10.17	16–3	14.7	+0.50	0.5	33%
3	Stanford University	8.77	9.07	12–7	10.9	+0.30	0.2	38%
5	College of Charleston	8.29	8.58	9–7	8.2	+0.29	0.2	42%
2	Tulane University	9.56	9.47	14–5	14.3	−0.09	0.0	68%
4	University of Miami	8.75	8.59	10–9	10.6	−0.16	0.1	72%
9	University of Vermont	6.54	6.14	2–14	2.7	−0.41	0.2	80%
8	U. S. Naval Academy	8.53	6.77	4–12	9.0	−1.76	6.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charles Mckenzie	College of Charleston	2.33	3.46	8–4	5.5	+1.14	2.0	9%
Mateo Rodriguez	Florida State University	2.74	3.42	6–10	4.2	+0.67	0.9	20%
Andreas Keswater	University of South Florida	2.15	2.77	5–11	3.5	+0.61	0.7	23%
Zachariah Schemel	University of South Florida	2.46	3.08	5–11	3.5	+0.61	0.7	23%
Asher Zittrer	Tulane University	2.97	2.83	12–5	12.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.87	2.71	10–9	10.6	−0.16	0.1	72%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.04	2.88	10–9	10.6	−0.16	0.1	72%
Richard Mccann	University of Miami	2.56	1.67	3–1	3.5	−0.90	0.4	93%
Tanner Kelly	U. S. Naval Academy	2.61	0.85	4–12	9.0	−1.76	6.1	>99%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.89	1.14	4–12	9.0	−1.76	6.1	>99%
Alexander Gonzalez	College of Charleston	2.67	0.69	1–3	2.6	−1.98	2.3	99%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	2.64	0.66	1–3	2.6	−1.98	2.3	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	14%	upset
1	2	Florida State University	University of Vermont	64%
1	3	University of Miami	University of South Florida	87%
1	4	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	5	College of Charleston	Stanford University	32%	upset
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Florida State University	93%
1	7	University of Miami	University of Vermont	90%
1	8	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	16%	upset
1	9	Tulane University	Stanford University	70%
1	10	Florida State University	College of Charleston	19%	upset
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	72%
1	12	University of Vermont	U. S. Naval Academy	12%	upset
1	13	Tulane University	University of South Florida	93%
1	14	Stanford University	Florida State University	84%
1	15	University of Miami	College of Charleston	52%
1	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	17	Tulane University	University of Vermont	96%
1	18	Stanford University	University of South Florida	88%
1	19	University of Miami	Florida State University	84%
1	20	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
1	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	52%
1	22	University of South Florida	University of Vermont	57%
1	23	Stanford University	University of Miami	50%	upset
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	Florida State University	80%
1	25	Tulane University	College of Charleston	81%
1	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	95%
1	27	Stanford University	University of Vermont	90%
1	28	University of Miami	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
1	29	Tulane University	Florida State University	92%
1	30	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	79%
1	31	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	96%
1	32	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
1	33	Tulane University	University of Miami	69%
1	34	Florida State University	University of South Florida	58%
1	35	University of Vermont	College of Charleston	16%	upset
1	36	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Stanford University	71%
2	37	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
2	38	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	80%
2	39	Florida State University	University of Vermont	65%
2	40	University of South Florida	University of Miami	14%	upset
2	41	Stanford University	College of Charleston	63%
2	42	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Florida State University	92%
2	43	University of Miami	University of Vermont	89%
2	44	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	85%
2	45	Stanford University	Tulane University	31%	upset
2	46	College of Charleston	Florida State University	83%
2	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	72%
2	48	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Vermont	88%
2	49	Tulane University	University of South Florida	93%
2	50	Florida State University	Stanford University	17%	upset
2	51	University of Miami	College of Charleston	49%	upset
2	52	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
2	53	Tulane University	University of Vermont	95%
2	54	University of South Florida	Stanford University	13%	upset
2	55	University of Miami	Florida State University	83%
2	56	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
2	57	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	52%
2	58	University of South Florida	University of Vermont	57%
2	59	Stanford University	University of Miami	50%	upset
2	60	U. S. Naval Academy	Florida State University	80%
2	61	College of Charleston	Tulane University	21%	upset
2	62	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	94%
2	63	Stanford University	University of Vermont	90%
2	64	University of Miami	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
2	65	Tulane University	Florida State University	92%
2	66	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	81%
2	67	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	96%
2	68	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
2	69	University of Miami	Tulane University	31%	upset
2	70	Florida State University	University of South Florida	59%
2	71	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	85%
2	72	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Stanford University	71%
3	73	Tulane University	University of Miami	69%
3	74	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	29%	upset
3	75	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	71%
3	76	Tulane University	Stanford University	69%
3	77	Tulane University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	47%	upset
3	78	Stanford University	University of Miami	50%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Wave	Cardinal	Hurricanes	Cougars	Seminoles	Bulls	Midshipmen	Catamounts
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	5–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	5–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–4	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Florida State University Seminoles	3–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Wave	Cardinal	Hurricanes	Cougars	Seminoles	Bulls	Midshipmen	Catamounts
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–4	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	5–3	L	W	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	5–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Florida State University Seminoles	3–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bears	Wave	Cardinal	Hurricanes
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–2	✕	L	L	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	W	L	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
2	Seminoles	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
3	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
4	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
5	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seminoles	3-4-6
7	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
8	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
9	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
10	Seminoles	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
11	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
12	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
13	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seminoles	3-5-6
15	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
16	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
17	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
19	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Seminoles	2-4-6
20	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
22	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
23	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
24	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seminoles	3-5-6
25	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
26	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
27	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
28	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
29	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Seminoles	3-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
31	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
32	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
33	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
34	Seminoles	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
35	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
36	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
37	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
38	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
39	Seminoles	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
40	Bulls	2-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	1-4-6
41	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
42	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seminoles	3-4-6
43	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
44	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
45	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
46	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seminoles	3-4-6
47	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Hurricanes	2-4-5
48	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
49	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
50	Seminoles	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
51	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
52	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
53	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
54	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
55	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Seminoles	3-5-6
56	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
57	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
58	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
60	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seminoles	3-4-5
61	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
62	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
63	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
64	Hurricanes	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
65	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Seminoles	3-5-6
66	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
67	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
69	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
70	Seminoles	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
71	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
72	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
73	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	1-4-6
74	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
75	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
76	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
77	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
78	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23 Nicholas Reeser '25	Charles Mason '23 Lauren O'Neill '24 Jack Farrell '23 Charles Pohl '26
Tulane University	Green Wave	Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Peter Foley Iii '26 Thad Lettsome '24	Gillian Perrell '24 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Alex Makoid '25
Stanford University	Cardinal	Chapman Petersen '26 Jack Baldwin '26 Justin Lim '23	Anaclare Sole '23 Gwendolyn Donahue '24 Patricia Gerli '23
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Richard Mccann '23 Steven Hardee '26	Dominic Canonico '23 Natalie Elder '25 James Nappo '24 Teddy Bueres '24
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alexander Gonzalez '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Charles Mckenzie '25 Jack Howard '23 Lawson Levine '24	Kaili Yap '23 Chloe Hudgins '24 Brylie Schaubach '26 Nina Lubchenco '25
Florida State University	Seminoles	Joey Meagher '24 Katie Nelson '24 Mateo Rodriguez '23	Olivia Hanley '24 Niah Ford '26 Brady Parks '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andreas Keswater '24 Humberto Porrata '25 Zachariah Schemel '25	Melissa Janes '26 Emmy Digiacomo '24 Brilan Christopher '24
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Caden Scheiblauer '23 Eva Blauvelt '25 Tanner Kelly '25	Darby Graham '26 Julia Christie '24 Catherine Aitken '24
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Connell Phillipps '23 Ryan Hamilton '23 Ryan Potter '24	Maddy Saffer '24 Will Broseman '26 Alex Forrest '26

Conditions — 03/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1013.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From NNW (342°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1013.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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