Tulane University '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.68 (fleet 3.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–1 (95%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 21–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 19–1 against 18.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-04 | Garner Tullis | skipper | 2.46 | 2.64 | 19–1 | 18.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Garner Tullis | Skipper | TR | 20 | 95% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 74% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 3.16 |
| SEISA Fall Open Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 4.28 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.0 | 2.56 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 4.77 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
