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Garner Tullis

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 19–1
2 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 15–5
3 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 9–11
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 7–13
5 Rice University Rice University Owls 0–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 50 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.225 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 74% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave		18.29
home +0.36		Zander King / Alex Makoid 2.69
Peter Foley Iii / Kit Stoll
William Keenan / Essie Clifton 2.52		94%19–1 (95%)+0.2
2Tulane University
Angry Wave		26.71
home +0.36		Matheo Graham-Capasso / Ella May Corckran
Ashley Hoguet / Brady Starck
Bobby Rielly / Raquel Shulman		72%15–5 (75%)+0.5
3University of Texas
Longhorns		34.81Reilly Linn / Sophia Herrada 1.21
Ethan Froelich / Leigha Forrest 2.31
Reese Zebrowski / Rohit Rajan		39%9–11 (45%)+1.3
4University of Wisconsin
Badgers		44.75
school −0.49		Gavin Dempsey / Carmen Lineer
Lucas Quinn / Noah Hallerman
Charlie Herrick / Kate Thickens		38%7–13 (35%)−0.5
5Rice University
Owls		52.88Ricky Miller / Noah Rossi
Leo Marek / Emery Engling
Arthur Unger / Claytom Ramsey		7%0–20 (0%)−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of Texas Longhorns4.815.319–117.7+0.510.531%
2Tulane University Angry Wave6.716.9915–514.5+0.270.151%
1Tulane University Green Wave8.298.4619–118.8+0.170.067%
4University of Wisconsin Badgers4.754.557–137.5−0.200.174%
5Rice University Owls2.88-0.120–201.5≤−3.002.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Reilly LinnUniversity of Texas1.211.719–117.7+0.510.531%
Reese ZebrowskiUniversity of Texas0.951.469–117.7+0.510.531%
Matheo Graham-CapassoTulane University1.792.0615–514.5+0.270.151%
Ashley HoguetTulane University1.701.9715–514.5+0.270.151%
Peter Foley IiiTulane University2.462.6419–118.8+0.170.067%
William KeenanTulane University2.522.7019–118.8+0.170.067%
Lucas QuinnUniversity of Wisconsin1.651.447–137.5−0.200.174%
Arthur UngerRice University0.52-2.480–201.5≤−3.002.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tulane University Green WaveRice University Owls100%
12Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns85%
13University of Wisconsin BadgersRice University Owls90%
14Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Angry Wave85%
15University of Texas LonghornsUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers47%upset
16Tulane University Angry WaveRice University Owls98%
17Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns97%
18Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers87%
19University of Texas LonghornsRice University Owls88%
110Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers97%
211Tulane University Green WaveRice University Owls100%
212Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns87%
213University of Wisconsin BadgersRice University Owls87%
214Tulane University Angry WaveTulane University Green Wave17%upset
215University of Texas LonghornsUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers50%
216Tulane University Angry WaveRice University Owls98%
217Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns97%
218Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers88%
219University of Texas LonghornsRice University Owls87%
220Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers97%
321Tulane University Green WaveRice University Owls100%
322Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns87%
323University of Wisconsin BadgersRice University Owls86%
324Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Angry Wave83%
325University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Texas Longhorns48%upset
326Tulane University Angry WaveRice University Owls98%
327Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns97%
328Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers88%
329University of Texas LonghornsRice University Owls87%
330Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers97%
431Tulane University Green WaveRice University Owls100%
432Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns87%
433University of Wisconsin BadgersRice University Owls85%
434Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Angry Wave82%
435University of Texas LonghornsUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers53%
436Tulane University Angry WaveRice University Owls98%
437Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns97%
438University of Wisconsin BadgersTulane University Angry Wave11%upset
439University of Texas LonghornsRice University Owls86%
440Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers97%
541Tulane University Green WaveRice University Owls99%
542Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns87%
543University of Wisconsin BadgersRice University Owls84%
544Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Angry Wave82%
545University of Texas LonghornsUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers53%
546Tulane University Angry WaveRice University Owls98%
547Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Texas Longhorns97%
548Tulane University Angry WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers89%
549University of Texas LonghornsRice University Owls86%
550Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers97%

Round 1

TeamRec.WaveWaveLonghornsBadgersOwls
Tulane University Green Wave7–1✕✕WWW
Tulane University Angry Wave7–1✕✕WWW
University of Texas Longhorns2–2LL✕WW
University of Wisconsin Badgers1–3LLL✕W
Rice University Owls0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WaveWaveLonghornsBadgersOwls
Tulane University Green Wave7–1✕✕WWW
Tulane University Angry Wave7–1✕✕WWW
University of Texas Longhorns2–2LL✕WW
University of Wisconsin Badgers1–3LLL✕W
Rice University Owls0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WaveWaveLonghornsBadgersOwls
Tulane University Green Wave7–1✕✕WWW
Tulane University Angry Wave7–1✕✕WWW
University of Texas Longhorns1–3LL✕LW
University of Wisconsin Badgers2–2LLW✕W
Rice University Owls0–4LLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.WaveWaveLonghornsBadgersOwls
Tulane University Green Wave6–2✕✕WWW
Tulane University Angry Wave6–2✕✕WWW
University of Texas Longhorns2–2LL✕WW
University of Wisconsin Badgers2–2LLL✕W
Rice University Owls0–4LLLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.WaveWaveLonghornsBadgersOwls
Tulane University Green Wave7–1✕✕WWW
Tulane University Angry Wave7–1✕✕WWW
University of Texas Longhorns2–2LL✕WW
University of Wisconsin Badgers1–3LLL✕W
Rice University Owls0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
2 Tulane University Angry Wave 2-3-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 1-5-6
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-5 def. Rice University Owls 1-4-6
4 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Angry Wave 3-4-6
5 University of Texas Longhorns 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
6 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
7 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 3-5-6
8 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
9 University of Texas Longhorns 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
10 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
11 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
12 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 3-5-6
13 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-5 def. Rice University Owls 2-4-6
14 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-3-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2-5-6
15 University of Texas Longhorns 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
16 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-5 def. Rice University Owls 3-4-6
17 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 3-5-6
18 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
19 University of Texas Longhorns 1-2-5 def. Rice University Owls 3-4-6
20 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
21 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
22 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 4-5-6
23 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-6 def. Rice University Owls 2-4-5
24 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Angry Wave 3-5-6
25 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-5 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2-4-6
26 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
27 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 4-5-6
28 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
29 University of Texas Longhorns 1-3-4 def. Rice University Owls 2-5-6
30 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
31 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
32 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 3-5-6
33 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. Rice University Owls 3-5-6
34 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Angry Wave 3-5-6
35 University of Texas Longhorns 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
36 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. Rice University Owls 3-5-6
37 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Texas Longhorns 4-5-6
38 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Angry Wave 3-4-5
39 University of Texas Longhorns 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
40 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
41 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
42 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Texas Longhorns 3-4-6
43 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. Rice University Owls 3-4-6
44 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Angry Wave 3-4-5
45 University of Texas Longhorns 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
46 Tulane University Angry Wave 1-2-4 def. Rice University Owls 3-5-6
47 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 3-5-6
48 Tulane University Angry Wave 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
49 University of Texas Longhorns 1-2-4 def. Rice University Owls 3-5-6
50 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-4-6

Conditions — 03/04/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1015.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →