University of Texas '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09 (fleet 1.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–12 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 14–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 14–12 against 12.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-04 | Garner Tullis | skipper | 1.21 | 1.71 | 9–11 | 7.7 | +0.51 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2023-02-25 | McCarthy Cup | skipper | 0.95 | 1.29 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 64% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing National Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | -2.48 |
| McCarthy Cup | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 2.06 |
| Garner Tullis | Skipper | TR | 20 | 45% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Troy Swetnam Memorial Regatta 2022 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 2.35 |
| Sugar Bowl Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.3 | — |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.3 | -0.55 |
| SEISA Fall Open Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 2.83 |
| Kilpatrick Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.5 | 2.36 |
| Kathryn Hammond Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 0.28 |
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.7 | -1.08 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| 2022 SailPack Oriental Intercollegiate | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 0.85 |
| Q1 Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | -3.50 |
| North Designate/St. Francis | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 0.37 |
| McCarthy Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| College Sailing Regional Teams Nat'l Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 1.67 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Kathryn Hammond Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.6 | 0.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
