Baldwin Wood

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Riptide 49
2 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave Women 67
3 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 100
4 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 152
5 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 188
6 University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 193
7 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 236
8 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 239
9 Wolfpack Wolfpack Wolfpack 342
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide A 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 1 5 18 John Wood '26
Raquel Shulman '25
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave Women B 3 5 4 2 4 1 2 8 1 30 Ashley Hoguet '26
Megan Cassidy '26
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide B 7 1 3 4 2 4 5 3 2 31 Bobby Rielly '25
Ellie Spearman '25
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave Women A 4 7 7 6 3 2 3 2 3 37 Lucy Spearman '25
Catherine Anderson '26
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 5 2 1 3 7 5 4 5 13 45 Zander King '25
Alex Makoid '25
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 2 6 5 5 6 6 8 6 11 55 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26
Essie Clifton '25
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 B 8 4 6 10 5 14 6 11 10 74 Thomas Norman '23
Leigha Forrest '24
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 A 13 9 11 8 12 7 7 4 7 78 Reilly Linn '23
Warren Wegener '23
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 B 9 13 9 11 11 8 11 14 4 90 Cole Broberg '25
Jonathan Zhou '23
University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green A 14 11 10 15 9 9 9 7 9 93 Taylor Snyder '24
Alana Babilonia '25
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 A 6 8 8 13 8 10 14 15 16 98 Ryyan Amsden '24
Maggie Menefee '25
University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green B 11 10 12 9 10 16 13 13 6 100 Timothy Verriere '24
Gage Hendrickson '23
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 B 10 12 15 12 16 15 10 9 8 107 Sophia Herrada '24 [1-9]
Delilah D'Souza '24 [1-6]
Rohit Rajan '26 [7-9]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 B 12 16 14 7 13 12 16 12 14 116 Andrew Pool '23
Emily Davison '24
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 A 15 15 16 14 15 11 12 10 12 120 Elliot Mcmahon '23
Katy Heaney '23
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 A 16 14 13 16 14 13 15 16 15 132 Etienne Black '23 [1-9]
Sireen Kenana '23 [1-3]
Julia Mchugh '24 [4-9]
Wolfpack Wolfpack Wolfpack A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 171
Wolfpack Wolfpack Wolfpack B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 171
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
WolfpackWolfpack Wolfpack111222333
University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas Mean Green777888999
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 1888999101010
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 2999101010111111
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 1222333444
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 2333444555
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave Women666777888
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave444555666
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide555666777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
WolfpackWolfpack Wolfpack101010111111121212
University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas Mean Green161616171717181818
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 1171717181818111
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 2181818111222
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 1111111121212131313
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 2121212131313141414
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave Women151515161616171717
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave131313141414151515
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide141414151515161616

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1019.1 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From SE (134°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1019.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →