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Kilpatrick Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 3 3 6
2 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 5 3 8
3 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6 6 12
4 University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 2 6 14 20
5 Baylor University Baylor University Bears 12 8 20
6 University of Kansas University of Kansas Jayhawks 12 11 23
7 University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 1 12 11 23
8 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 17 17 34
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears11
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 155
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 266
University of KansasUniversity of Kansas Jayhawks77
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns88
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 122
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 233
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies44

Division B

Team1B2B
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears22
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 166
University of Central OklahomaUniversity of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 277
University of KansasUniversity of Kansas Jayhawks88
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns11
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 133
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 244
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies55

Conditions — 10/01/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 29%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From SE (129°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity29% Pressure1018.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · SE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Central Oklahoma: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Central Oklahoma by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Central Oklahoma: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →