University of Texas '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 (fleet 2.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–26 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 8–4 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 9–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 9–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 25–25 against 26.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | SEISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.83 | 4.56 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +2.73 | 0.3 | 76% |
| 2025-02-01 | Q1 Regatta | skipper | 1.77 | 1.08 | 4–2 | 4.8 | −0.69 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2024-04-06 | SEISA Open Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.55 | 0.18 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.37 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2024-03-30 | McCarthy Cup Team Race | skipper | 1.46 | 0.04 | 4–2 | 5.1 | −1.42 | 1.1 | 97% |
| 2024-02-03 | Q1 Regatta | skipper | 1.23 | 1.37 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2023-03-04 | Garner Tullis | skipper | 0.95 | 1.46 | 9–11 | 7.7 | +0.51 | 0.5 | 31% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
