| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies 1 | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi | Islanders | 2–1 |
| 3 | |
Texas A&M University | Aggies 2 | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | 2–1 |
| 5 |  |
Rice University | Owls | 2–2 |
| 6 |  |
University of Oklahoma | Sooners | 0–3 |
| 6 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,802 team race matches sailed before 2024-02-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 22 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.682 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.87 ± 0.46: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders | 0.10 | 1.21 | 3–3 | 2.1 | +1.11 | 0.7 | 30% |
| 6 | University of Oklahoma Sooners | -1.50 | -0.46 | 1–5 | 0.4 | +1.04 | 0.5 | 38% |
| 3 | Texas A&M University Aggies 2 | 2.76 | 3.03 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 6 | University of Texas Longhorns | 2.48 | 2.62 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 1 | Texas A&M University Aggies 1 | 3.28 | 3.35 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 3 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 1.71 | 1.44 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 81% |
| 5 | Rice University Owls | 2.75 | 1.57 | 3–5 | 4.8 | −1.18 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddy Lee | Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi | -0.16 | 0.95 | 3–3 | 2.1 | +1.11 | 0.7 | 30% |
| Triston Haden | Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi | -0.87 | 0.24 | 3–3 | 2.1 | +1.11 | 0.7 | 30% |
| Caidan Stecklein | University of Oklahoma | -0.63 | 0.41 | 1–5 | 0.4 | +1.04 | 0.5 | 38% |
| Kegan Reynolds | University of Oklahoma | -1.20 | -0.15 | 1–5 | 0.4 | +1.04 | 0.5 | 38% |
| Rylan Reynolds | University of Oklahoma | -0.05 | 0.99 | 1–5 | 0.4 | +1.04 | 0.5 | 38% |
| Reese Zebrowski | University of Texas | 1.23 | 1.37 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Oliver Fenner | University of Texas | 0.33 | 0.47 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Cole Broberg | Texas A&M University | 0.74 | 0.81 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Sydney Krahulik | Texas A&M University | 0.45 | 0.52 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Brett Pearson | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.29 | 1.02 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 81% |
| Jack Meyer | Texas A&M University at Galveston | -0.06 | -0.33 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 81% |
| Arthur Unger | Rice University | 0.71 | -0.47 | 3–5 | 4.8 | −1.18 | 1.4 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Islanders | 2 | Aggies | Owls | Sooners | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University Aggies 1 | 7–5 | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W | L | L |
| Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders | 3–3 | L | ✕ | L | W | L | W | L |
| Texas A&M University Aggies 2 | 7–5 | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W | L | L |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–3 | W | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Rice University Owls | 4–2 | L | W | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Oklahoma Sooners | 1–5 | W | L | W | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 3–3 | W | W | W | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Islanders | 2 | Aggies | Owls | Sooners | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University Aggies 1 | 5–7 | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W | L | L |
| Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | L | W | L | L |
| Texas A&M University Aggies 2 | 5–7 | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W | L | L |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–3 | W | W | W | ✕ | L | W | L |
| Rice University Owls | 3–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L |
| University of Oklahoma Sooners | 2–4 | W | W | W | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 6–0 | W | W | W | W | W | W | ✕ |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
