| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rice University | Owls | 2–1 |
| 1 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 2–1 |
| 4 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Sea Aggies | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,440 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 3 matches (33%) with a log-loss of 0.997 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice University Owls | 2 | 3.15 school −0.38 | Ricky Miller / Aidan Murphy 1.71 Joe Slipper / Oliver Zhu 1.36 Leo Marek / Lindsey Frost 0.43 | 48% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.0 |
| 1 | University of Texas Longhorns | 1 | 4.41 school −0.13, home +0.37 | Matias Martin / Dennis Kostjuhin 2.05 Reese Zebrowski / Sophia Herrada 1.76 Rohit Rajan / Mark Carella 0.33 | 85% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.7 |
| 3 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 3 | 2.06 school −0.06 | Kate Hennig / Evelyn Dubois 1.18 Drew Gourley / Menya Bird 0.75 Zachary Aronson / Canaan Cortes | 16% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.7 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Texas A&M University | 2.06 | 3.81 | 1–1 | 0.3 | +1.75 | 0.9 | 31% |
| 1 | Rice University | 3.15 | 3.24 | 1–1 | 1.0 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 1 | University of Texas | 4.41 | 2.57 | 1–1 | 1.7 | −1.84 | 1.0 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Rice University | University of Texas | 22% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | University of Texas | Texas A&M University | 92% | |
| 1 | 6 | Texas A&M University | Rice University | 25% | upset |
| Team | Rec. | Owls | Longhorns | Aggies | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice University Owls | 2–1 | ✕ | W | L | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 2–1 | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Aggies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Sea Aggies | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Owls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Owls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Owls | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rice University | Owls | Joe Slipper '28 Leo Marek '26 Ricky Miller '26 |
Oliver Zhu '28 Lindsey Frost '26 Aidan Murphy '25 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Matias Martin '27 Reese Zebrowski '26 Rohit Rajan '26 |
Dennis Kostjuhin '27 Sophia Herrada '24 Mark Carella '27 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Drew Gourley '27 Kate Hennig '26 Zachary Aronson '27 |
Menya Bird '26 Evelyn Dubois '27 Canaan Cortes '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
