Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/25/2023
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–3
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–3
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	9–5
4	Tulane University	Green Wave	0–0
5	Fordham University	Rams	7–7
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–9
7	George Washington University	Buff and Blue	6–6
8	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–6
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	3–9
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 68 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.524 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	9.62 school +0.20	Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir 3.42 11–2 Leo Boucher / Ellie Sekowski 3.50 9–2 Felix Cutler / Katherine Shermock 2.38 7–1 Leo Boucher / Madison Bashaw 3.60 3–1 Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 2.55 2–1 Felix Cutler / Anna Flynn 2.48 2–0 Charlie Anderson / Sam Muir 2.58 1–1 Owen Hennessey / Anna Flynn 3.48 1–1	64%	12–3 (80%)	+2.5
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	10.24 school +0.29	Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston 3.23 8–1 Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.27 8–1 Mariner Fagan / Emily Panarella 3.44 5–1 Mariner Fagan / Diego Escobar 3.45 3–3 Mateo Di Blasi / Eva Fortunato 3.25 3–3 Scott Mais / Spencer Kriegstein 3.23 3–3 Mariner Fagan / Spencer Kriegstein 3.46 3–0	77%	11–4 (73%)	−0.6
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	9.19 school +0.29	Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 3.14 Kyle Pfrang / Julia O'Connor 3.38 8–5 Jack Roman / Claire Buckley 2.46 6–4 Jack Roman / Ethan Snyder 2.29 3–1 George Higham / Claire Buckley 2.68 1–0	56%	9–5 (64%)	+1.2
4	Tulane University Green Wave	3	9.46	Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.52 4–6 Thad Lettsome / Alex Makoid 3.01 4–6 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.95 4–6 Cameron Giblin / Kit Stoll 3.52 4–0 Asher Zittrer / Brady Starck 2.96 4–0 Thad Lettsome / Matheo Graham-Capasso 3.00 2–0 Thad Lettsome / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.06 2–0	62%	8–6 (57%)	−0.7
5	Fordham University Rams	9	8.00 school +0.19	Kenneth Corsig / Kristen Healy 2.83 Peter Lobaugh / Bella Rabeni 2.40 Patrick Dolan / Rebecca Keller 2.56	28%	7–7 (50%)	+3.1
6	Tufts University Jumbos	7	8.86 school +0.08	Patrick Mulcahy / Caroline Kelly 2.67 Ben Mueller / William Eykyn 3.07 3–7 Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 3.02 3–7 Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.05 3–2 Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.04 3–2	48%	6–9 (40%)	−1.1
7	George Washington University Buff and Blue	8	8.47 school +0.06	Owen Timms / Genevieve Mumma 2.98 Tyler Wood / Annabelle O'Bryan 2.89 6–4 Oscar Macgillivray / Kaleigh Morgan 2.52 6–4 Tyler Wood / Kaleigh Morgan 2.99 0–3 Oscar Macgillivray / Nick Lopez 2.39 0–3	45%	6–7 (46%)	+0.1
8	College of Charleston Cougars	5	8.78 school +0.42	Alexander Gonzalez / Brylie Schaubach 2.84 4–6 Charles Mckenzie / Nina Lubchenco 2.67 4–6 Benjamin Dufour / Aidan Iaconis 2.79 5–2 Benjamin Dufour / Kaili Yap 2.66 1–4 Alexander Gonzalez / Nina Lubchenco 2.91 2–0 Charles Mckenzie / Aidan Millar 2.58 2–0	53%	6–6 (50%)	−0.4
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	8.57 school +0.26, home +0.40	Andrew Ciszewski / Katherine Barton 2.44 Noyl Odom / Asianna Acosta 2.65 3–7 Parker Purrington / Grace Wright 2.77 3–7 Noyl Odom / Ethan Tutt 2.76 0–2 Parker Purrington / Diogo Silva 2.77 0–2	51%	3–9 (25%)	−3.1
10	University of South Florida Bulls	10	6.36	Andreas Keswater / Melissa Janes 2.21 Jordan Byrd / Emmy Digiacomo 1.90 Humberto Porrata / Erik Volk 2.22	8%	0–12 (0%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Fordham University	8.00	9.09	7–7	3.9	+1.09	2.5	5%
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.62	10.57	12–3	9.5	+0.95	1.6	12%
3	Roger Williams University	9.19	9.60	9–5	7.8	+0.41	0.4	34%
7	George Washington University	8.47	8.52	6–7	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
8	College of Charleston	8.78	8.62	6–6	6.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
2	Georgetown University	10.24	10.01	11–4	11.6	−0.23	0.1	77%
4	Tulane University	9.46	9.23	8–6	8.7	−0.24	0.1	76%
6	Tufts University	8.86	8.49	6–9	7.1	−0.37	0.3	82%
9	Old Dominion University	8.57	7.13	3–9	6.1	−1.44	3.1	99%
10	University of South Florida	6.36	3.36	0–12	1.0	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kenneth Corsig	Fordham University	2.83	3.91	7–7	3.9	+1.09	2.5	5%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.55	2.88	3–2	2.7	+0.33	0.1	56%
Owen Hennessey	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.42	3.47	6–7	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
Alexander Gonzalez	College of Charleston	2.84	2.68	6–6	6.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Charles Mckenzie	College of Charleston	2.67	2.51	6–6	6.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	2.79	2.63	6–6	6.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Asher Zittrer	Tulane University	2.95	2.71	8–6	8.7	−0.24	0.1	76%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.07	2.70	6–9	7.1	−0.37	0.3	82%
Patrick Mulcahy	Tufts University	2.67	2.30	6–9	7.1	−0.37	0.3	82%
Noyl Odom	Old Dominion University	2.65	1.21	3–9	6.1	−1.44	3.1	99%
Andrew Ciszewski	Old Dominion University	2.44	1.00	3–9	6.1	−1.44	3.1	99%
Andreas Keswater	University of South Florida	2.21	-0.79	0–12	1.0	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%
Jordan Byrd	University of South Florida	1.90	-1.10	0–12	1.0	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Fordham University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18%	upset
1	2	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	70%
1	3	Tufts University	University of South Florida	92%
1	4	Georgetown University	Tulane University	68%
1	5	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
1	6	Fordham University	George Washington University	38%	upset
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	96%
1	8	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	72%
1	9	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	58%
1	10	Tulane University	College of Charleston	69%
1	11	George Washington University	University of South Florida	89%
1	12	Georgetown University	Fordham University	90%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	73%
1	14	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	46%	upset
1	15	Tufts University	College of Charleston	54%
1	16	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	98%
1	17	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
1	18	Tulane University	Fordham University	81%
1	19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	70%
1	20	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	62%
1	21	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	83%
1	22	Tulane University	University of South Florida	96%
1	23	Tufts University	George Washington University	60%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	75%
1	25	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	24%	upset
1	26	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	69%
1	27	Georgetown University	Tufts University	80%
1	28	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	94%
1	29	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	80%
1	30	College of Charleston	Fordham University	68%
1	31	Tulane University	Tufts University	66%
1	32	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	46%	upset
1	33	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
1	34	Fordham University	University of South Florida	84%
1	35	George Washington University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
1	36	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	61%
1	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	51%
1	38	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	36%	upset
1	39	Georgetown University	George Washington University	86%
1	40	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	92%
1	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	56%
1	42	Fordham University	Tufts University	30%	upset
1	43	George Washington University	Tulane University	27%	upset
1	44	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	90%
1	45	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	81%
1	46	Tufts University	George Washington University	60%
4	49	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	56%
4	50	George Washington University	University of South Florida	89%
4	53	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	93%
4	54	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
4	57	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	90%
4	58	College of Charleston	George Washington University	61%
6	47	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	52%
6	48	Fordham University	Roger Williams University	25%	upset
6	51	Tufts University	Georgetown University	20%	upset
6	52	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	56%
6	55	Tulane University	Tufts University	66%
6	56	Georgetown University	Fordham University	90%
6	59	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	61%
6	60	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	82%
6	61	Georgetown University	Tulane University	69%
6	62	Fordham University	Tufts University	30%	upset
6	63	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	54%
6	64	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	36%	upset
6	65	Tulane University	Fordham University	81%
6	66	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	70%
6	67	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	28%	upset
6	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	36%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Hoyas	Hawks	Wave	Rams	Jumbos	Blue	Cougars	Monarchs	Bulls
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–3	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	9–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	5–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Buff and Blue	4–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–6	W	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Blue	Cougars	Monarchs	Bulls
George Washington University Buff and Blue	2–1	✕	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Hoyas	Hawks	Wave	Rams	Jumbos
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–4	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
2	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Buff and Blue	2-3-6
3	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
5	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
6	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Buff and Blue	2-3-6
7	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
8	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
9	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
10	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
11	Buff and Blue	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
12	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
13	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
14	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
15	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
16	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
17	Buff and Blue	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
18	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
19	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
21	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
22	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
23	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
24	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
25	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
26	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
28	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
29	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
30	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
31	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
32	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
33	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
34	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
35	Buff and Blue	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
36	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
37	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
38	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
39	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
41	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
42	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
43	Buff and Blue	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
45	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
46	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
49	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
50	Buff and Blue	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
53	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
54	Buff and Blue	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
57	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
58	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Buff and Blue	3-4-6
47	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
48	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
51	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
52	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
55	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
56	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
59	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
60	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
61	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
62	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
63	Green Wave	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
64	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
65	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
66	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
67	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
68	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Felix Cutler '26 Leo Boucher '22 Owen Hennessey '25	Sam Muir '22 Katherine Shermock '24 Anna Flynn '25 Ellie Sekowski '23 Madison Bashaw '24
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25 Scott Mais '23	Emily Panarella '24 Diego Escobar '25 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Caro Gaston '25 Eva Fortunato '23 Addi Harris '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	George Higham '23 Jack Roman '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Mathieu Dale '25	Claire Buckley '25 Ethan Snyder '25 Julia O'Connor '24 Annika Irene '23
Tulane University	Green Wave	Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Thad Lettsome '24	Gillian Perrell '24 Brady Starck '25 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Kit Stoll '23 Alex Makoid '25 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26
Fordham University	Rams	Kenneth Corsig '23 Patrick Dolan '25 Peter Lobaugh '24	Kristen Healy '24 Rebecca Keller '25 Bella Rabeni '24
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Trevor Davis '24	Henry Tindall '25 William Eykyn '25 Caroline Kelly '23 Celia Byrne '24
George Washington University	Buff and Blue	Oscar Macgillivray '24 Owen Timms '23 Tyler Wood '26	Kaleigh Morgan '24 Nick Lopez '26 Genevieve Mumma '24 Annabelle O'Bryan '24
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alexander Gonzalez '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Charles Mckenzie '25	Nina Lubchenco '25 Brylie Schaubach '26 Aidan Iaconis '26 Kaili Yap '23 Aidan Millar '26
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Andrew Ciszewski '25 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24	Katherine Barton '23 Asianna Acosta '26 Ethan Tutt '24 Grace Wright '26 Diogo Silva '26
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andreas Keswater '24 Humberto Porrata '25 Jordan Byrd '24	Melissa Janes '26 Erik Volk '23 Emmy Digiacomo '24

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 66% · Pressure 1009.1 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 15.2 kn

Gusts to 29.2 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1009.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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