SAISA North Top 6 Invite

HostCharleston
Date09/14/2024
TypeFundamental
Boat420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	120
2	Clemson University	Tigers	253
3	The Citadel	Bulldogs	365
4	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	385
5	Duke University	Blue Devils	464
6	University of North Carolina	Tar Heels	466

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
College of Charleston	Cougars A	2	10	2	2	1	2	10	1	2	1	3	1	37	Jonnie Ciffolillo '27 Sophia Browne '25
College of Charleston	Cougars C	3	3	5	4	4	3	1	2	1	3	2	6	37	Harrison Thomson '26 Andrea Melnik '27
College of Charleston	Cougars B	1	1	1	1	9	1	8	5	9	4	1	5	46	Charles Mckenzie '25 Grace Beard '25
Clemson University	Tigers A	9	4	3	10	3	6	2	3	10	2	11	3	66	Nilah Miller '25 Sam Heighway '25
Clemson University	Tigers C	5	2	4	6	6	5	6	7	6	6	6	14	73	Mitchell Hnatt '28 Bryson Eaton '28
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack A	4	5	9	3	7	12	12	8	8	13	4	8	93	William Wheary '28 Annika Milstien '25
University of North Carolina	Tar Heels A	6	7	6	5	14	4	4	10	5	10	10	13	94	Noah Jost '27 Julia Brighton '27
Duke University	Blue Devils A	10	11	12	9	8	10	3	6	3	12	8	4	96	Ian Hoogenboom '25 Jack Wigmore '27
The Citadel	Bulldogs A	13	9	10	12	12	7	11	9	4	11	5	2	105	Andrew Tollefson '26 Camden Hom '26
The Citadel	Bulldogs B	11	14	7	13	5	8	7	12	14	5	7	9	112	Kenneth Buck '26 [1-12] Alana Hantz '27 [1-8] Preston Cyr '27 [9-12]
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack C	12	6	8	8	2	9	5	11	11	9	15	16	112	Oscar Lubliner '27 Olivia Soucy '28
Clemson University	Tigers B	8	13	11	7	10	11	9	4	7	7	12	15	114	Mason Baird '26 [1-3, 7-9] Antonio Priskich '27 [4-6, 10-12] Paige Phillips '25 [1-3, 7-9] Jack Houseal '27 [4-6, 10-12]
The Citadel	Bulldogs C	7	8	14	14	17	14	17	13	16	8	13	7	148	Henry Parker '26 [1-6, 8, 10-12] Bradlee Anderson '28 [7, 9] Preston Cyr '27 [1-6] Henry Parker '26 [7, 9] Bradlee Anderson '28 [8, 10-12]
University of North Carolina	Tar Heels B	14	15	13	11	15	15	15	17	12	14	14	10	165	May Proctor '27 Sarina Schmoyer '27
Duke University	Blue Devils B	15	12	15	15	11	13	13	16	13	16	16	11	166	Zohar Almani '28 James Kelly '28
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack B	17	17	16	18	13	16	18	14	15	15	9	12	180	Liam Holder '28 Joseph Morgan '27
Duke University	Blue Devils C	16	16	17	17	18	18	14	18	17	17	17	17	202	William Robertson '25 Ava Wietlisbach '28
University of North Carolina	Tar Heels C	18	18	18	16	16	17	16	15	18	DNF	18	18	207	Jessica Baugh '27 [1-12] Andrew Shaz '27 [1-3] Megan Miller '26 [4-12]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
College of Charleston Cougars	2	2	2	1	1	1	18	18	18	17	17	17
The Citadel Bulldogs	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	8
Clemson University Tigers	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4
Duke University Blue Devils	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6
University of North Carolina Tar Heels	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
College of Charleston Cougars	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5
The Citadel Bulldogs	11	11	11	12	12	12	13	13	13	14	14	14
Clemson University Tigers	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	10	10	10
Duke University Blue Devils	9	9	9	10	10	10	11	11	11	12	12	12
University of North Carolina Tar Heels	12	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10	9	9	9
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	10	10	10	9	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	7

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C	10C	11C	12C
College of Charleston Cougars	14	14	14	13	13	13	12	12	12	11	11	11
The Citadel Bulldogs	17	17	17	18	18	18	1	1	1	2	2	2
Clemson University Tigers	13	13	13	14	14	14	15	15	15	16	16	16
Duke University Blue Devils	15	15	15	16	16	16	17	17	17	18	18	18
University of North Carolina Tar Heels	18	18	18	17	17	17	16	16	16	15	15	15
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	16	16	16	15	15	15	14	14	14	13	13	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Clemson University	Nilah Miller '25	Sam Heighway '25
Tigers	Mason Baird '26 [1-3, 7-9] Antonio Priskich '27 [4-6, 10-12]	Paige Phillips '25 [1-3, 7-9] Jack Houseal '27 [4-6, 10-12]
	Mitchell Hnatt '28	Bryson Eaton '28
College of Charleston	Jonnie Ciffolillo '27	Sophia Browne '25
Cougars	Charles Mckenzie '25	Grace Beard '25
	Harrison Thomson '26	Andrea Melnik '27
Duke University	Ian Hoogenboom '25	Jack Wigmore '27
Blue Devils	Zohar Almani '28	James Kelly '28
	William Robertson '25	Ava Wietlisbach '28
North Carolina State University	William Wheary '28	Annika Milstien '25
Wolfpack	Liam Holder '28	Joseph Morgan '27
	Oscar Lubliner '27	Olivia Soucy '28
The Citadel	Andrew Tollefson '26	Camden Hom '26
Bulldogs	Kenneth Buck '26 [1-12]	Alana Hantz '27 [1-8] Preston Cyr '27 [9-12]
	Henry Parker '26 [1-6, 8, 10-12] Bradlee Anderson '28 [7, 9]	Preston Cyr '27 [1-6] Henry Parker '26 [7, 9] Bradlee Anderson '28 [8, 10-12]
University of North Carolina	Noah Jost '27	Julia Brighton '27
Tar Heels	May Proctor '27	Sarina Schmoyer '27
	Jessica Baugh '27 [1-12]	Andrew Shaz '27 [1-3] Megan Miller '26 [4-12]

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.3 kn

avg · max 13.4 kn

Gusts to 23.3 kn

From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.17 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Charleston: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.06

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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