College of Charleston '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.77 (fleet 3.83) | 75 of 331 | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–21 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 4 | 36–9 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 11–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 47–20 against 47.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | SAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.20 | 3.79 | 17–1 | 16.3 | +0.59 | 0.3 | 48% |
| 2026-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 3.26 | 2.67 | 5–4 | 5.7 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2026-02-28 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 3.17 | 3.70 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Open Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 6.18 | 8–0 | 7.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 2025-03-29 | 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Grey Regatta | skipper | 3.19 | 1.76 | 3–9 | 5.5 | −1.42 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 2025-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 3.80 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.09 | 6.09 | 3–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jonnie Ciffolillo |  Tabor Academy |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
