SAISA North Top 6 Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 28
2 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 73
3 The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 116
4 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 125
5 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 168
6 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 192
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 13 Dillon Garcia '27
Clara Murphy '27
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 2 15 Jonnie Ciffolillo '27
Andrea Melnik '27
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers A 3 3 3 5 3 4 4 2 5 32 Nilah Miller '25
Sam Heighway '25
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers B 4 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 41 Mason Baird '26
Vanessa Marahrens '26
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils A 8 4 7 3 4 3 9 5 4 47 Ian Hoogenboom '25
Jack Wigmore '27
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs A 5 5 4 7 6 7 6 11 6 57 Kenneth Buck '26
Camden Hom '26
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs B 6 8 6 6 8 8 3 6 8 59 Andrew Tollefson '26 [1-3, 9]
Henry Parker '26 [4-8]
Henry Parker '26 [1-3, 9]
Andrew Tollefson '26 [4-8]
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils B 10 9 8 12 7 6 12 7 7 78 Ryan Froeb '27
Lexie Belgrad '26
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks A 7 7 10 8 11 9 10 12 9 83 Alana Vodicka '26
Anna Soykan '25
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks B 9 11 9 9 9 11 7 10 10 85 Ryan Kanter '27
Sam Lookadoo '25
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 11 12 12 10 10 10 8 9 11 93 Joe Lewandowski '26 [1-9]
Marc Hauenstein '27 [1-6]
Benjamin Stewart '26 [7-9]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 12 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 12 99 Joseph Morgan '27
Blaine Garner '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars222333444
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs555666777
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers111222333
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils333444555
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack444555666
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks666777888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars888999101010
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs111111121212111
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers777888999
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils999101010111111
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack101010111111121212
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks121212111222

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 12.4 kn
From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Citadel: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Citadel by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Citadel, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →