SAISA Open Team Race Championship

HostCharleston
Date04/04/2026
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	17–1
2	University of Miami	Hurricanes	13–5
3	Jacksonville University	Fins	10–8
4	Eckerd College	Tritons	8–10
5	Rollins College	Tars	8–10
6	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–12
7	Clemson University	Tigers	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,349 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 63 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.441 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.13 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	10.49 school +0.47	Fynn Olsen / Caroline Uram 3.28 Jonnie Ciffolillo / Belle Placa 3.23 Pierce Olsen / Ava Cohen 3.47	91%	17–1 (94%)	+0.6
2	University of Miami Hurricanes	3	9.08 school +0.57	David Webb / Gizela Kohan 2.33 Steven Hardee / Arantxa Argibay 3.49 William Stratton / Lanee Imperato 2.65	71%	13–5 (72%)	+0.3
3	Jacksonville University Fins	2	9.16 school −0.23	Owen Bannasch / Ella Wisely 3.50 Hank Seum / Madison Mihan 3.02 Cole Schweda / Taylor Collison 2.85	72%	10–8 (56%)	−2.9
4	Eckerd College Tritons	4	7.86 school +0.05	Jordan Vieira / Tia Soultanakis 2.91 Peter Miller / Peyton Seidle 1.86 Pj Rodrigues / Avery Guck 3.00	49%	8–10 (44%)	−0.7
5	Rollins College Tars	6	6.72 school −0.20	Annie Samis / Jane Mckenzie 2.38 Milo Miller / Julia Scott 2.41 Caleb Kinnear / Adelaide Matzky 2.09	28%	8–10 (44%)	+3.0
6	University of South Florida Bulls	5	6.87	Efe Guder / Ivy Dumas 2.47 Grace Jones / Melissa Janes 2.15 Sara Menesale / Ruth Bergman 2.13	30%	6–12 (33%)	+0.5
7	Clemson University Tigers	7	5.51 school −0.41	Mitchell Hnatt / Bryson Eaton 2.23 Ian Richardson / Taylor Bulwinkle 2.06 Luke Adams / Madison Cannon 1.58	10%	1–17 (6%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Rollins College	6.72	7.88	8–10	5.0	+1.16	2.6	5%
1	College of Charleston	10.49	11.02	17–1	16.4	+0.53	0.2	51%
6	University of South Florida	6.87	7.08	6–12	5.5	+0.21	0.1	49%
2	University of Miami	9.08	9.21	13–5	12.7	+0.12	0.0	57%
4	Eckerd College	7.86	7.58	8–10	8.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
7	Clemson University	5.51	4.87	1–17	1.7	−0.64	0.3	85%
3	Jacksonville University	9.16	8.01	10–8	12.9	−1.15	2.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Annie Samis	Rollins College	2.38	3.53	8–10	5.0	+1.16	2.6	5%
Milo Miller	Rollins College	2.41	3.57	8–10	5.0	+1.16	2.6	5%
Caleb Kinnear	Rollins College	2.09	3.25	8–10	5.0	+1.16	2.6	5%
Fynn Olsen	College of Charleston	3.28	3.82	17–1	16.4	+0.53	0.2	51%
Jonnie Ciffolillo	College of Charleston	3.23	3.77	17–1	16.4	+0.53	0.2	51%
Pierce Olsen	College of Charleston	3.47	4.00	17–1	16.4	+0.53	0.2	51%
Efe Guder	University of South Florida	2.47	2.68	6–12	5.5	+0.21	0.1	49%
Grace Jones	University of South Florida	2.15	2.36	6–12	5.5	+0.21	0.1	49%
Sara Menesale	University of South Florida	2.13	2.34	6–12	5.5	+0.21	0.1	49%
David Webb	University of Miami	2.33	2.45	13–5	12.7	+0.12	0.0	57%
Steven Hardee	University of Miami	3.49	3.61	13–5	12.7	+0.12	0.0	57%
William Stratton	University of Miami	2.65	2.77	13–5	12.7	+0.12	0.0	57%
Jordan Vieira	Eckerd College	2.91	2.63	8–10	8.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
Peter Miller	Eckerd College	1.86	1.58	8–10	8.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
Pj Rodrigues	Eckerd College	3.00	2.73	8–10	8.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
Mitchell Hnatt	Clemson University	2.23	1.59	1–17	1.7	−0.64	0.3	85%
Ian Richardson	Clemson University	2.06	1.42	1–17	1.7	−0.64	0.3	85%
Luke Adams	Clemson University	1.58	0.94	1–17	1.7	−0.64	0.3	85%
Owen Bannasch	Jacksonville University	3.50	2.35	10–8	12.9	−1.15	2.5	99%
Hank Seum	Jacksonville University	3.02	1.87	10–8	12.9	−1.15	2.5	99%
Cole Schweda	Jacksonville University	2.85	1.70	10–8	12.9	−1.15	2.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	98%
1	2	Jacksonville University	Rollins College	92%
1	3	Eckerd College	Clemson University	91%
1	4	University of Miami	University of South Florida	90%
1	5	College of Charleston	Rollins College	98%
1	6	Jacksonville University	Clemson University	98%
1	7	University of Miami	Eckerd College	77%
1	8	Rollins College	University of South Florida	47%	upset
1	9	College of Charleston	Clemson University	99%
1	10	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	79%
1	11	Rollins College	University of Miami	9%	upset
1	12	University of South Florida	Clemson University	79%
1	13	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	93%
1	14	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	52%
1	15	Rollins College	Clemson University	77%
1	16	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	27%	upset
1	17	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	79%
1	18	University of Miami	Clemson University	97%
1	19	Eckerd College	Rollins College	76%
1	20	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	9%	upset
1	21	College of Charleston	University of Miami	80%
2	22	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	97%
2	23	Jacksonville University	Rollins College	92%
2	24	Eckerd College	Clemson University	91%
2	25	University of Miami	University of South Florida	90%
2	26	College of Charleston	Rollins College	98%
2	27	Jacksonville University	Clemson University	97%
2	28	Eckerd College	University of Miami	23%	upset
2	29	Rollins College	University of South Florida	46%	upset
2	30	College of Charleston	Clemson University	99%
2	31	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	79%
2	32	University of Miami	Rollins College	91%
2	33	Clemson University	University of South Florida	20%	upset
2	34	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	93%
2	35	University of Miami	Jacksonville University	48%	upset
2	36	Rollins College	Clemson University	77%
2	37	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	27%	upset
2	38	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	79%
2	39	University of Miami	Clemson University	97%
2	40	Rollins College	Eckerd College	24%	upset
2	41	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	91%
2	42	University of Miami	College of Charleston	20%	upset
3	43	University of Miami	Rollins College	91%
3	44	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	9%	upset
3	45	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	93%
3	46	University of Miami	Clemson University	97%
3	47	Jacksonville University	Rollins College	92%
3	48	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	97%
3	49	Eckerd College	Clemson University	91%
3	50	University of Miami	Jacksonville University	49%	upset
3	51	College of Charleston	Rollins College	98%
3	52	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	72%
3	53	Jacksonville University	Clemson University	97%
3	54	College of Charleston	University of Miami	80%
3	55	Eckerd College	Rollins College	76%
3	56	University of South Florida	Clemson University	80%
3	57	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	79%
3	58	University of Miami	Eckerd College	77%
3	59	Rollins College	University of South Florida	45%	upset
3	60	College of Charleston	Clemson University	99%
3	61	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	22%	upset
3	62	University of Miami	University of South Florida	90%
3	63	Rollins College	Clemson University	77%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hurricanes	Fins	Tritons	Tars	Bulls	Tigers
College of Charleston Cougars	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	3–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Rollins College Tars	3–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W
Clemson University Tigers	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hurricanes	Fins	Tritons	Tars	Bulls	Tigers
College of Charleston Cougars	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	5–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–4	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W
Rollins College Tars	3–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Clemson University Tigers	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hurricanes	Fins	Tritons	Tars	Bulls	Tigers
College of Charleston Cougars	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	4–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Rollins College Tars	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Clemson University Tigers	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
2	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
3	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
4	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
5	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
6	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
7	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
8	Tars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
9	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
10	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
11	Tars	2-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	1-4-6
12	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Tigers	1-5-6
13	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
14	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
15	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
16	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
17	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
18	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
19	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Tars	2-4-6
20	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
21	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
23	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
24	Tritons	2-3-5	def.	Tigers	1-4-6
25	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
26	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Tars	1-5-6
27	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
28	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
29	Tars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
31	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
32	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
33	Tigers	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
34	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
35	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
36	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
37	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
38	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
39	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
40	Tars	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
41	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
42	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
43	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Tars	2-4-6
44	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Fins	2-3-6
45	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
46	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
47	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
48	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
49	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
50	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
51	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
52	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
53	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
54	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
55	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
56	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
57	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
58	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
59	Tars	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
60	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
61	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
62	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
63	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Fynn Olsen '29 Jonnie Ciffolillo '27 Pierce Olsen '29	Caroline Uram '28 Belle Placa '29 Ava Cohen '29
University of Miami	Hurricanes	David Webb '28 Steven Hardee '26 William Stratton '29	Gizela Kohan '27 Arantxa Argibay '27 Lanee Imperato '29
Jacksonville University	Fins	Cole Schweda '27 Hank Seum '27 Owen Bannasch '26	Taylor Collison '28 Madison Mihan '27 Ella Wisely '27
Eckerd College	Tritons	Jordan Vieira '28 Peter Miller '29 Pj Rodrigues '28	Tia Soultanakis '26 Peyton Seidle '29 Avery Guck '28
Rollins College	Tars	Annie Samis '29 Caleb Kinnear '29 Milo Miller '27	Jane Mckenzie '27 Adelaide Matzky '29 Julia Scott '27
University of South Florida	Bulls	Efe Guder '28 Grace Jones '28 Sara Menesale '28	Ivy Dumas '29 Melissa Janes '26 Ruth Bergman '28
Clemson University	Tigers	Ian Richardson '29 Luke Adams '28 Mitchell Hnatt '28	Taylor Bulwinkle '28 Madison Cannon '29 Bryson Eaton '28

Conditions — 04/04/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 66°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From SSE (165°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1024.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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