Eckerd College '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.55 (fleet 3.43) | 118 of 331 | +0.07 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–54 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 4 | 25–25 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 12–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (91 matches) the record is 37–54 against 31.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.2). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | SAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.02 | 2.71 | 8–10 | 8.8 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2026-03-21 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 3.07 | 3–10 | 2.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 4.16 | 8–3 | 5.9 | +1.20 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Open Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 5.00 | 6–2 | 3.8 | +2.15 | 3.4 | 4% |
| 2025-04-05 | SAISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.50 | 3.70 | 6–8 | 3.8 | +1.20 | 2.0 | 9% |
| 2025-03-08 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 2.22 | 2–16 | 2.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.24 | 2.01 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 77% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
