Bob Bavier Open Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/08/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–3
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	16–5
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	14–7
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	13–8
5	University of Miami	Hurricanes	11–7
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–11
7	Jacksonville University	Fins	6–12
8	University of South Florida	Bulls	5–13
9	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	4–14
10	Eckerd College	Tritons	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,440 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 73 of 96 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.07 ± 0.19: a typical event, more orderly than 50% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.47 school +0.32	Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.23 Sophie Fisher / Ava Cornell 3.33 Chapman Petersen / Abby Baird 3.70 14–3 Thomas Whidden / Abby Baird 2.93 4–0	80%	18–3 (86%)	+1.2
2	College of Charleston Cougars	1	10.56 school +0.39	Axel Stordahl / Lucy Zinn 3.01 Noah Zittrer / Clara Murphy 3.57 Benjamin Dufour / Andrea Melnik 3.57	81%	16–5 (76%)	−1.0
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	8.99 school +0.32	Tristan Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 2.79 13–6 Jack Roman / Carter Sheehan 2.87 10–7 Drew Mastovsky / Ruby Hope 3.12 10–7 Connor Mchugh / Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino 2.63 9–1	49%	14–7 (67%)	+3.7
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	9.49 school +0.10	Bradley Whiteway / Sarah Krajewski 2.88 Colman Schofield / Charles Pohl 3.83 Luke Zylinski / Grace Austin 2.77 6–6 Jack Derry / Grace Austin 2.49 7–2	60%	13–8 (62%)	+0.3
5	University of Miami Hurricanes	3	9.65 school +0.24	Atlee Kohl / Briana Hummel 3.38 Aidan Dennis / Ana Stewart 3.17 Steven Hardee / Arantxa Argibay 2.81 7–5 Steven Hardee / Isaac Van Buren 2.83 4–2	66%	11–7 (61%)	−0.9
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	8.68 school +0.28	Tanner Kelly / Sarah Mcnelly 2.82 3–11 Hugh Carty / Molly Jethwa 2.60 5–9 Kyle Reinecke / Gregory Lesmerises Degraff 2.88 7–7 Sean Trudell / Melania Gonzalez 6–6	46%	7–11 (39%)	−1.2
7	Jacksonville University Fins	7	8.50 school −0.11	Matthew King / Rori Bywater 2.81 Cole Schweda / Will Platten 2.66 Owen Bannasch / Kayla Putzke 3.34 6–6 Hank Seum / Taylor Collison 2.56 0–6	45%	6–12 (33%)	−2.2
8	University of South Florida Bulls	8	7.81 school +0.09	Efe Guder / Mercedes Newland Cespedes 2.46 Zachariah Schemel / Saleta Powell 2.86 Humberto Porrata / Anindita Carlsen 2.33	29%	5–13 (28%)	−0.2
9	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	9	7.18 school −0.22	Benjamin Usher / Shea Hoffacker 2.41 Kevin Gosselin / Sean Harris 2.84 Ryan Brelage / Annika Milstien	19%	4–14 (22%)	+0.5
10	Eckerd College Tritons	10	6.64 school −0.18	Carter Morin / Lily Schwartz 1.75 Pj Rodrigues / Avery Guck 2.38 Jordan Vieira / Tia Soultanakis 2.61	13%	2–16 (11%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Roger Williams University	8.99	9.96	14–7	10.3	+0.97	2.6	5%
1	Stanford University	10.47	10.92	18–3	16.8	+0.45	0.4	36%
9	North Carolina State University	7.18	7.39	4–14	3.5	+0.22	0.1	48%
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.49	9.58	13–8	12.7	+0.09	0.0	54%
8	University of South Florida	7.81	7.73	5–13	5.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
10	Eckerd College	6.64	6.48	2–16	2.3	−0.16	0.0	70%
5	University of Miami	9.65	9.34	11–7	12.0	−0.31	0.2	80%
2	College of Charleston	10.56	10.23	16–5	17.0	−0.33	0.2	81%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	8.68	8.29	7–11	8.2	−0.39	0.3	83%
7	Jacksonville University	8.50	7.75	6–12	8.1	−0.75	1.1	94%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.49	3.92	7–2	5.0	+1.43	2.1	10%
Drew Mastovsky	Roger Williams University	3.12	4.03	10–7	6.9	+0.90	2.0	8%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.23	3.68	18–3	16.8	+0.45	0.4	36%
Benjamin Usher	North Carolina State University	2.41	2.62	4–14	3.5	+0.22	0.1	48%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.88	2.96	13–8	12.7	+0.09	0.0	54%
Efe Guder	University of South Florida	2.46	2.39	5–13	5.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Zachariah Schemel	University of South Florida	2.86	2.78	5–13	5.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Carter Morin	Eckerd College	1.75	1.59	2–16	2.3	−0.16	0.0	70%
Pj Rodrigues	Eckerd College	2.38	2.22	2–16	2.3	−0.16	0.0	70%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.38	3.08	11–7	12.0	−0.31	0.2	80%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	3.17	2.87	11–7	12.0	−0.31	0.2	80%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	3.01	2.68	16–5	17.0	−0.33	0.2	81%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.57	3.24	16–5	17.0	−0.33	0.2	81%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.77	1.97	6–6	7.7	−0.80	1.0	94%
Tanner Kelly	U. S. Naval Academy	2.82	2.02	3–11	4.9	−0.80	1.0	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Miami	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
1	2	Jacksonville University	North Carolina State University	83%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	89%
1	4	College of Charleston	Stanford University	49%	upset
1	5	University of South Florida	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	14%	upset
1	6	University of Miami	Jacksonville University	71%
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	86%
1	8	College of Charleston	North Carolina State University	97%
1	9	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	76%
1	10	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
1	11	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	90%
1	12	University of Miami	College of Charleston	29%	upset
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	72%
1	14	Stanford University	North Carolina State University	97%
1	15	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	38%	upset
1	16	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	98%
1	17	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	27%	upset
1	18	University of Miami	Stanford University	28%	upset
1	19	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
1	20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	North Carolina State University	92%
1	21	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	94%
1	22	Stanford University	Eckerd College	96%
1	23	Roger Williams University	Jacksonville University	56%
1	24	University of Miami	North Carolina State University	92%
1	25	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	26	Stanford University	University of South Florida	94%
1	27	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	19%	upset
1	28	North Carolina State University	Eckerd College	63%
1	29	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
1	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	42%	upset
1	31	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	81%
1	32	North Carolina State University	University of South Florida	35%	upset
1	33	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	34	University of Miami	Eckerd College	95%
1	35	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Jacksonville University	79%
1	36	Roger Williams University	North Carolina State University	82%
1	37	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	38	University of Miami	University of South Florida	86%
1	39	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	93%
1	40	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Eckerd College	94%
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	North Carolina State University	80%
1	42	Roger Williams University	University of Miami	33%	upset
1	43	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	86%
1	44	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	76%
1	45	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
2	46	University of Miami	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
2	47	Jacksonville University	North Carolina State University	83%
2	48	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	88%
2	49	Stanford University	College of Charleston	51%
2	50	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	86%
2	51	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	29%	upset
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	87%
2	53	College of Charleston	North Carolina State University	97%
2	54	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	75%
2	55	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
2	56	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	11%	upset
2	57	College of Charleston	University of Miami	71%
2	58	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	25%	upset
2	59	Stanford University	North Carolina State University	97%
2	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	62%
2	61	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	98%
2	62	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	28%	upset
2	63	Stanford University	University of Miami	72%
2	64	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
2	65	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	North Carolina State University	92%
2	66	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	94%
2	67	Stanford University	Eckerd College	96%
2	68	Jacksonville University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
2	69	University of Miami	North Carolina State University	92%
2	70	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
2	71	Stanford University	University of South Florida	94%
2	72	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	81%
2	73	North Carolina State University	Eckerd College	63%
2	74	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	54%
2	75	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	42%	upset
2	76	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	82%
2	77	North Carolina State University	University of South Florida	35%	upset
2	78	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
2	79	University of Miami	Eckerd College	95%
2	80	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Jacksonville University	79%
2	81	Roger Williams University	North Carolina State University	82%
2	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	15%	upset
2	83	University of Miami	University of South Florida	86%
2	84	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	93%
2	85	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Eckerd College	93%
2	86	U. S. Naval Academy	North Carolina State University	81%
2	87	Roger Williams University	University of Miami	33%	upset
2	88	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	86%
2	89	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	24%	upset
2	90	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
3	91	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	81%
3	92	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
3	93	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	23%	upset
3	94	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	82%
3	95	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	38%	upset
3	96	Stanford University	College of Charleston	52%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Hawks	Bears	Hurricanes	Midshipmen	Fins	Bulls	Wolfpack	Tritons
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	7–2	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Eckerd College Tritons	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Hawks	Bears	Hurricanes	Midshipmen	Fins	Bulls	Wolfpack	Tritons
Stanford University Cardinal	8–1	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–6	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L
University of South Florida Bulls	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	L
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Hawks	Bears
Stanford University Cardinal	3–0	✕	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	1–2	L	✕	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–2	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
2	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
3	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
4	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
5	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
6	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
8	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
9	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
11	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
12	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
15	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
16	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
17	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
18	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
19	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
20	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
21	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
24	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
27	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
28	Wolfpack	2-3-5	def.	Tritons	1-4-6 DNF
29	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
32	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
33	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
34	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
35	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
36	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
38	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
39	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
42	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
44	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
45	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
46	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
47	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
48	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
49	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
51	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
53	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
55	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
56	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
57	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
58	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
61	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
62	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
63	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6 DNF
64	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
65	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-5
66	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
68	Fins	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
69	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
70	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
71	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
72	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
73	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
74	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
75	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
77	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
78	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
79	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
80	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
81	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
82	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
83	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
84	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
85	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
86	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
87	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
88	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
89	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
90	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
91	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
92	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
93	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
94	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
95	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
96	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Chapman Petersen '26 Ellie Harned '26 Sophie Fisher '26 Thomas Whidden '28	Abby Baird '28 Kit Harned '27 Ava Cornell '28
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Zinn '28 Andrea Melnik '27 Clara Murphy '27
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Mchugh '28 Drew Mastovsky '26 Jack Roman '26 Tristan Mcdonald '28	Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27 Ruby Hope '25 Carter Sheehan '27 Frankie Sparrow '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Colman Schofield '25 Jack Derry '25 Luke Zylinski '26	Sarah Krajewski '26 Charles Pohl '26 Grace Austin '27
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Steven Hardee '26	Ana Stewart '27 Briana Hummel '27 Arantxa Argibay '27 Isaac Van Buren '28
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Hugh Carty '27 Kyle Reinecke '28 Sean Trudell '28 Tanner Kelly '25	Molly Jethwa '28 Gregory Lesmerises Degraff '28 Melania Gonzalez '28 Sarah Mcnelly '28
Jacksonville University	Fins	Cole Schweda '27 Hank Seum '27 Matthew King '24 Owen Bannasch '26	Will Platten '27 Taylor Collison '28 Rori Bywater '25 Kayla Putzke '24
University of South Florida	Bulls	Efe Guder '28 Humberto Porrata '25 Zachariah Schemel '25	Mercedes Newland Cespedes '24 Anindita Carlsen '28 Saleta Powell '25
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	Benjamin Usher '27 Kevin Gosselin '27 Ryan Brelage '28	Shea Hoffacker '27 Sean Harris '25 Annika Milstien '25
Eckerd College	Tritons	Carter Morin '25 Jordan Vieira '28 Pj Rodrigues '28	Lily Schwartz '25 Tia Soultanakis '26 Avery Guck '28

Conditions — 03/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 8.5 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From W (259°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1011.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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