Roger Williams University '28
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.70 | 22 of 251 | 72 | Fall 2026 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.78 (fleet 3.75) | 70 of 328 | +0.08 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 57–14 (80%) as crew 1–1 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 6 | 39–10 | 1–1 |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 18–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (71 matches) the record is 57–14 against 53.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.99 | 3.78 | 11–1 | 10.1 | +0.79 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2026-03-21 | RWU Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 6.08 | 4–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 33% |
| 2026-03-14 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 2.98 | 3.13 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-07 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 2.39 | 4–7 | 5.6 | −0.71 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2026-03-01 | McMerrick Team Race Sunday | skipper | 3.05 | 6.05 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 2026-02-28 | McMerrick Team Race Saturday | skipper | 2.99 | 5.99 | 12–0 | 11.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 75% |
| 2025-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 3.62 | 7–1 | 6.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 2025-03-08 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 4.38 | 9–1 | 6.7 | +1.74 | 2.5 | 8% |
| 2025-03-01 | McMerrick | skipper | 2.53 | 2.14 | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Whalen Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.4 | 4.63 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| NEISA Open Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.6 | 3.73 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 3.80 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern NE Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| RWU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 93% | — |
| McMerrick Team Race Sunday | Skipper | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| McMerrick Team Race Saturday | Skipper | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup-2026 | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 3.42 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 4.00 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.9 | 3.39 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | 2.92 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.8 | 4.39 |
| Monotype Trophy - NEISA Open Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.6 | 4.54 |
| Glen S. Foster Trophy Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.9 | 3.04 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 3.87 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| O’Toole Saturday | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 2.29 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 4.29 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| McMerrick | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| 87th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.2 | 4.39 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.8 | 3.61 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.7 | 3.05 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.4 | 3.48 |
| Montotype Trophy - NEISA Open Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.3 | 3.30 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 24 | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.8 | 3.54 |
| Eagle Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 4.11 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Connor Mchugh |  North Hunterdon High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
